War in Ukraine, what scenarios for the future? Four hypotheses retained by the experts

Will the Ukrainians succeed in driving the Russian invaders out of their territory? The belligerents seem determined to continue the war that began in February 2022, even though it has already caused tens of thousands of military and civilian deaths. Despite an abundance of means, Moscow is struggling to show convincing results on the battlefield: if the fall of Bakhmout seems imminent, the winter progress has proven to be as slow as it is costly for the Russian forces, while their effort seems to be reaching its climax.

Opposite, the Ukrainians are patiently awaiting the opportunity to put their new armored capabilities, recently provided by the West, into action. For months they have been preparing a new counter-offensive, determined to break through the opposing lines of defence. Will they make it? From a Ukrainian breakthrough to a Russian collapse, passing by a resumption of the conflict by Moscow, L’Express examines the possible scenarios for the continuation of the conflict.

Scenario 1: A Ukrainian breakthrough

For many experts, this is the most likely scenario: after weeks of effort, the Ukrainians break through the Russian defense line. “If they have prepared properly, I am convinced that they will do very well, because the German Leopard 2 tanks and all the other heavy Western equipment received since the beginning of the year are superior to the Russian equipment “, argues General Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe.

But where to attack? Two sectors seem inauspicious: Donetsk, fortified since 2014, and the eastern bank of Kherson, with the obstacle of the wide Dnieper River. There remains the hilly front of Luhansk, north of Donbass, and that of the oblast of Zaporijia. “A Ukrainian advance would have a better chance of intervening in this flat zone, but I believe more in small breakthroughs, because the deeper we go, the more vulnerable we become”, underlines Yohann Michel, researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

“During a breakthrough, the objective is to concentrate your forces on a narrow point, explains General Hodges. Once you have broken through the enemy lines, you can launch attacks along a transverse axis to get behind other defenses opponents.” Even without reaching the Sea of ​​Azov – to cut the Russian front in two – such a breakthrough would demonstrate to the West that their weapons give Kiev the advantage. “And that would allow the Ukrainian forces to tell themselves that everything is possible for future offensives,” adds General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French mission to the UN.

Scenario 2: The collapse of the Russian front

This is the dream scenario for kyiv: their breakthrough takes them to the Sea of ​​Azov. “In this case, the Ukrainians could bypass the Russian defenders and force them to abandon their positions”, explains General Trinquand. They have already done so during their surprise attack east of Kharkiv in September, pushing back the front by several tens of kilometers. For the Russians, it would be catastrophic: Crimea and the occupied territories to the north of it would only be supplied by the Kerch bridge.

Could this military catastrophe lead to a Russian debacle? “A situation analogous to the collapse of the Russian army during the First World War cannot be excluded,” said Tomas Ries, professor at the Higher School of National Defense in Stockholm. Such a scenario could in any case favor Ukrainian offensives on two territories under Russian control since 2014: Crimea and the southeastern part of Donbass.

What to shake the Russian power. “A substantial breakthrough would be a huge shock for the entire Russian system, proving that the Kremlin made a huge mistake in creating this war: its vaunted forces could not even beat a country like Ukraine, continues this Swedish expert The big question is whether Putin’s regime could survive it.” This situation would suit President Volodymyr Zelensky, determined to regain control of Ukraine’s borders, up to the Crimean peninsula. Final victory would be within reach.

Scenario n°3: A stagnation of the front line

This scenario is less favorable to kyiv. Despite its intense efforts, and the use of Western tanks and armored vehicles, the Ukrainian army was unable to break through the Russian defense lines. Apart from a few marginal advances, the front freezes. “We cannot exclude that the Russians are more skilful in defense than in the offensive”, notes General Nicolas Richoux, former commander of the 7th Armored Brigade. Especially since the fear of a Ukrainian counter-offensive has pushed them to strengthen their positions since the fall.

Mines and “dragon’s teeth”, these concrete cones intended to block the progression of armored vehicles, now mingle with the trenches all along the front line, as well as in the depth of the occupied territories. “We are no longer in the situation of last summer when the Russians were dispersed on fronts that were difficult to hold and lacked troops, points out Yohann Michel. And the numbers raised thanks to the mobilization could allow them to have a defense relatively effective.”

This extension of the status quo could play against kyiv. “In the event of a blockage, certain Western countries could push in favor of the opening of negotiations with Russia”, outlines Tomas Ries. The head of the Kremlin would then certainly seek to impose his conditions and strengthen his grip on the occupied Ukrainian territories. “The big risk would be that the war turns into a frozen conflict, as in the Donbass between 2014 and 2022, underlines General Richoux. This would allow Russia to strengthen itself before relaunching hostilities in a few years.”

Scenario 4: Russia regains control

This scenario dreamed up by the Russian general staff is the least probable in the eyes of the experts: against all odds, Russia manages to absorb the shock of the Ukrainian offensive and to counter-attack in stride. His forces managed to break through Ukrainian lines in Zaporizhia Oblast and Donbass. “It’s not very credible in the short term, slice Tomas Ries. The Russians are militarily exhausted: they don’t have enough reserves to launch a major attack.”

The relative failure of their recent winter offensive goes in this direction. In addition, the fleet of Russian tanks has melted like snow in the sun: the Russian army would have lost more than 1900 since the beginning of the conflict. Result: it is reduced to scraping drawer bottoms and destocking old T-54 and T-55 tanks, designed at the end of the Second World War. Would military support from China allow an offensive burst? “I do not believe in this option at all, sweeps General Trinquand. Beijing would have too much to lose by openly supporting Russia and would expose its economy to heavy Western sanctions.”

Another major obstacle in the conquest of the regions illegally annexed in September by Russia: strongholds such as the city of Zaporijia (720,000 inhabitants), capital of the oblast of the same name, or the twin cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, in the Donetsk region. “It seems very complicated, you have to remember that the Russians have been stumbling on Bakhmout for nine months”, slips General Richoux. Before the conflict, this modest city had only 70,000 inhabitants. However, more than 30,000 Russians are said to have been killed or injured in his siege, which began in August.