War in Ukraine: the three possible scenarios of Putin’s new offensive

A “new phase of the operation”. This is how Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the intensification of bombardments in the Donbass on the night of Monday April 18 to Tuesday April 19, the beginnings of what could be the biggest battle on European soil. since World War II.

For several weeks now, Moscow has been reinforcing its troops and weapons in the area, under the coordination of a new general, Alexander Dvornikov, to accelerate its offensive. Vladimir Poutine wants to make forget a first catastrophic phase, completed by the withdrawal of the conquered territories in the north of the country, for lack of having succeeded in taking kyiv.

Does the Russian army have the means for its ambitions: namely the conquest, at a minimum, of the territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts, which are beyond its control? “She has reconstituted forces, massed around Donbass, and is in a good position to relaunch her operations, believes Olivier Kempf, director of the strategic cabinet La Vigie. She has learned from her mistakes, is much more wary of Ukrainians, and returned to its strategic culture, based on the massive strikes of its artillery. What military gains can Vladimir Putin expect? From the maximalist push to Dnipro, to the impossible conquest of the rest of the Donbass, three scenarios are emerging for the weeks and months to come.

• Scenario n°1 – The Russian advance to Dnipro

In this case, the Russian army manages to break through the Ukrainian lines as far as the Dnieper River, seizing vast territories to the west of the two Donbass oblasts. Putin would then partly realize his dream of a so-called “Novorossia” (“New Russia”), minus the regions of Kharkiv, Odessa and Mykolayev. Enough to present the “special operation” in Ukraine to the Russian population as a triumph.

“That would require an improbable Ukrainian collapse, says Michel Goya, a former colonel in the navy, now a war historian. It is not completely impossible, but it would require the Russian army to put in a lot more resources , especially south of Zaporizhia, where his forces are too weak to consider anything.”

It would then remain to hold the conquered zones. “It seems unrealistic to me, especially since the Ukrainians have shown their ability to hit Russian logistics behind the front line,” said General Dominique Trinquand, military expert and former head of the French mission to the UN. .

Despite the concentration of Russian resources, such conquests do not seem to be possible in the short term. “We have to get rid of our imagination, marked by the French campaign of 1940, with a very daring raid by German forces, argues Olivier Kempf. We do not see the beginnings of a lightning war in Ukraine, and go as far as at Dnipro would be more of a third time goal for the Russians.”

• Scenario n°2 – The capture of all Donbass

In this scenario, Russian forces manage to take control of the whole of Donbass. At the end of March, the Russian Ministry of Defense also announced that it was concentrating its efforts on the “liberation” of this region, historically Russian-speaking, neighboring the oblasts of Kharkiv, Dnipro and Zaporijia. For the time being, Moscow claims to hold 54% of the province of Donetsk and 93% of that of Lugansk.

“This objective seems more realistic, considers General Dominique Trinquand. in Donetsk, in the south, so as to encircle the Ukrainians and cut them off from their rear. At the same time, they would also have to carry out an attack from East to West, so as to reduce the Ukrainian forces which would face three Russian axes.”

However, the operation would not be an easy task. “The Russian forces will inevitably come up against the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk (respectively 106,000 and 150,000 inhabitants), which constitute the key urban bastion in the area, points out Colonel Michel Goya. This would then be the start of a new siege , potentially more difficult for the Russians than that of Mariupol, given the large number of Ukrainian forces nearby.”

For the time being, the Russian army is concentrating its efforts on the towns of Popasna, Roubijné, Severodonetsk, after having taken Kreminna, about fifty kilometers from Sloviansk, on Monday. “There is better coordination of Russian forces and greater attention paid to the logistical lines which seem to have been solidified, points out Olivier Kempf. The offensive seems more methodical and more effective than when it was launched on February 24.”

• Scenario n°3 – The failure of the Russian offensive

A new Russian disappointment in the Donbass cannot be ruled out. The Ukrainian forces could benefit from the reinforcement of the deliveries of weapons by the West, less and less hesitant with the idea of ​​transmitting heavy material. On Tuesday, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said spare parts for Ukrainian Air Force fighter jets had been delivered. A week earlier, Joe Biden had announced the dispatch of Howitzer artillery pieces.

Can the Ukrainian army hope to stand up to the Russian giant? “If the line of defense holds in the Donbass and a counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region manages to cut off the rear of the Kremlin forces, massively positioned in Izium, then the Russian encirclement maneuver will no longer be possible, which will at the same time complicate the front attack from the East to the West”, explains General Trinquand. The failure of the operation would constitute a second major setback for Moscow, after the fiasco of its first offensive on kyiv.

The inevitable fall of Mariupol would remain. This would be transformed into a victory by default by Moscow, whose urgency is to be able to brandish a military success by May 9, the date celebrating in Russia the capitulation of Nazi Germany. “A new pause or a ceasefire would be possible if the Russians do not manage to make a breakthrough in the Ukrainian lines, says Colonel Goya. The risk would however be that the offensive resumes a few months later when the Russians have replenished their forces.” The war in Ukraine is set to last.