The eleven-second video was meant to put to rest rumors of Sergei Shoigu’s disappearance. Broadcast on March 24 by Russian state television, it shows Vladimir Putin holding a security council by videoconference. Facing the president, a dozen participants… including the Minister of Defense, at the top left of the screen. But several Russian independent media – in exile – immediately questioned the authenticity of these images. the Moscow Times remarks that the frame, dress and posture of Sergei Shoigu are strictly identical to those of his last appearance, during a previous meeting. “It can be assumed with a high degree of probability that the plans for Shoigu were simply copied from one of the previous safety tips and embedded in this video”, abounds the site mediazona.
The question would then remain: where did Sergei Shoigu go? The Minister of Defense has not been seen in public since March 11. Just like the chief of staff of the Russian army Valery Guerasimov. Two key figures in the war against Ukraine as if vanished… Could they be victims of a purge by Putin, furious at the turn taken by this dragging on invasion? For the time being, no other clue than their mysterious absence has emerged. But the hypothesis of a forced disappearance is not improbable according to historian Françoise Thom. “Putin cannot publicly dismiss them, it would be to recognize the failure of the war, he can only make them disappear”, comments the author of Understanding Putinism (Ed. Desclée de Brouwer, 2018).
Putin, who recently called for the “purification” of Russian society and denounced the “national-traitors” has already begun to dismiss officials from the FSB, the powerful intelligence service where he trained in the Soviet era. On March 11, one of the main heads of the secret services, Sergei Beseda, and his deputy were thus placed under house arrest.
“The Kremlin may be starting to wonder why US intelligence was so accurate,” suggests, in a recent interview at New Yorker, Andrei Soldatov, investigative journalist and expert in the Russian state intelligence apparatus. “It seems that now Putin is not only angry about bad intelligence and poor performance in Ukraine, but also wonders why the Americans knew so much,” he explains in substance. Have there been any leaks? Who are the culprits?
Stalin’s Ghost
Sergei Shoigu, at the helm of the invasion plan, could be one of the suspects. His family is no longer in the odor of holiness. Ksenia Choïgou, her daughter, openly against the war, dared to post a seemingly innocuous photo on her Instagram account. In yellow sportswear, she holds her baby there, all dressed in blue… The two colors of the Ukrainian flag, flown in recent days by the defenders of the invaded country.
As for Valery Guerassimov, the chief of staff of the army, also absent subscribers since March 11, he could have been punished for his positions on the war, which some say he was against. “A clue supports this thesis, slips the historian Françoise Thom. Shortly before the invasion, retired General Leonid Ivashov, a personality linked to the general staff, had affirmed in a forum and in an interview that war with Ukraine would be synonymous with the end of Russia. The fact that this ultra-patriot took this position was a sign. In my opinion, he could not do it without the green light from the general staff , it was an indirect message from Gerasimov to his boss.” His positions may have condemned him.
These disappearances from the public space of senior officials – a common practice of Chinese power towards critical voices – certainly signal cracks within the Russian state apparatus.
Vladimir Putin may have taken inspiration from his most valued ally, Chinese President Xi Jinping. But he also has, in this area, a historical “model” at home. “Disappearances were common in Stalin’s time, resumes Françoise Thom. To the point that the photos were retouched. For example, Leon Trotsky [NDLR : assassiné par un agent de Staline en 1940] was erased from photos from the time of the October Revolution (1917-1923). These people became non-persons.”
Will Valery Guerassimov and Sergei Shoigu soon be erased from official history? Or will they reappear miraculously? Shoigu’s entourage said he had “heart problems”. Some see it as the prelude to an early departure. At the end of the 1950s, Stalin’s security chief, Semion Ignatiev, had thus been called in sick because of a heart condition. The Red Tyrant blamed him for not doing enough to drive out the “enemies”.