Jimmie Akesson is about to dictate Swedish policy. Despite his party’s staggering score – 22% of the vote for the misnamed “Sweden Democrats” – the far-right leader will not be in government, but a coalition deal will give him the final say on the Stockholm strategy . His priority? “It’s time to put Sweden first.” Not a word about Europe and its crises, not a word about Ukraine and the war. Sweden is breaking away from European unity when it takes over the rotating presidency in January.
This first overwhelming success of the extreme right sets the tone for the electoral season which is opening in Europe. Next Sunday, Italy is set to fall into the hands of a right-wing alliance led by neo-fascist Giorgia Meloni. In Bulgaria, the November legislative elections could bring a pro-Putin coalition to power, and a cloud of questions hangs over Latvia, whose large Russian-speaking community could topple the government on October 1.
In all these countries, none of the political alliances openly declares itself in favor of Russia, but the Kremlin relies heavily on their capacity to cause harm within the European Union. “Europe can experience a ‘brown autumn’, summarizes MEP Stéphane Séjourné (Renew) in a grandstand for Opinion. The machine can seize up, but to slow down European action a little at this moment in history is not only to disappoint our populations but to endanger what has been accomplished in recent years.
In Ukraine, a new phase of war and other needs
Because the coming weeks are crucial for Europe and Ukraine. To carry out its counter-offensive and repel the Russians in bad shape as much as possible, kyiv urgently needs European support. “The recent successes of the Ukrainian army show how essential Western support has been in their fight against Russia, underlines Rafael Loss, researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The Ukrainians have proven that they are capable of using at best the modern equipment provided by the West.”
If the Twenty-Seven have promised new economic aid and arms deliveries, kyiv awaits much more radical decisions. “The war is entering a new phase, in which the ability to move armed troops under enemy fire and to exploit weaknesses in the Russian lines will prove crucial, details Rafael Loss. Tanks and other armed vehicles would allow the Ukrainian forces to build on their successes of the past few days and duplicate them in order to liberate other territories.”
After a brown autumn, a black winter in Europe?
The Baltic countries and Poland have been campaigning for months to supply tanks to the Ukrainian army, but Western Europe is hesitating, for fear of the Russian reaction. Under pressure from their nationalist forces, Sweden and Italy did not join this war effort. Worse, the future of European sanctions against Russia is written in dotted lines, as inflation and the rise in energy prices offer easy ammunition to populists.
The rise of national selfishness and the “fatigue” of seven months of war cannot make us forget the immensity of the danger represented by this conflict. “If Vladimir Putin wins, the precedent would be disastrous for all of Europe, explains Jean-Dominique Giuliani, president of the Robert-Schuman Foundation. The Western Balkans would not be the last, but all over the continent there are resentments due to geography or history that are just waiting to be stirred up.”
The results in Sweden are a first warning, Italy will be the second. After the brown autumn, Europe risks facing a black winter.