War in Ukraine: “The Chinese are already discussing with the Americans without telling the Russians”

George Friedman is the founder of Geopolitical Futures, geopolitical analysis and forecasting site. American expert in the field of foreign affairs and intelligence, he is also very connected with military circles in the United States. Its analyzes are regularly published on lexpress.fr

What lessons can be drawn from the first month of war in Ukraine?

The main one is that Russia, as a great power, has so far been incredibly overrated. We knew that its economy was behind those of South Korea and Brazil, but we saw it as a military power. But we now know that the modernization of the army, conducted for a decade, has largely failed because it was poorly thought out and poorly executed. I am not in a position to judge the bravery or the quality of the soldiers on the ground, but one thing is certain: the Russian military command is deficient. The way the war has been fought so far proves it.

“Strangely, it is the love of one’s neighbor that prevents nuclear war…”

By choosing to open three fronts simultaneously (north, east and south of Ukraine), the staff has created a logistical nightmare. Not only were the generals unable to organize support and supplies for these three armies, but they were also unable to support each other. Moreover, the Russian army has not determined a priority objective. Therefore, it is difficult to understand what is the war aim of Russia. Kyiv? If that was it, we had to put the package on kyiv. But it wasn’t kyiv. There were simply no clear objectives. In fact, the Russians thought their enemy was going to capitulate because of the fear they inspired. In times of war, it’s always bad to have such prejudices.

And the morale of the troops?

That of the Ukrainians surprises everyone. They are so motivated that it is not even worth giving them motivational speeches to galvanize them. I don’t know how to assess the motivation of the Russians. But, anyway, the morale of an army should never be a determining factor in a war. Because in a well-organized army, discipline is imposed on the combatants. This assumes that rank and file soldiers and NCOs understand what is being asked of them. However, there is clearly a problem of communication between, on the one hand, the officers, and, on the other, the non-commissioned officers and soldiers of the troop, that is to say those who are actually in combat. in the field. In an army, it is essential that officers have clear ideas so that those carrying out orders on the front line have no doubts about the task they are performing.

Discovering the tactical plans of their superiors on the first day of the invasion, the Russian soldiers probably lost confidence in themselves. Because, for the assailant, the first basic rule of a conflict is to avoid combat in town. In urban environments, the defender has a solid advantage: he controls all the streets, all the roofs, all the windows. Taking a city is a guaranteed nightmare. This is why, in all the wars it has waged, the American army has never sought to penetrate directly into metropolises. Even in Paris in 1944, the US Army had to be persuaded to enter. In general, capitals and major cities are the last places an army targets, not the first.

Has Russia already lost in Ukraine?

Polish intelligence tells me that the Russians have already committed 80% of their forces to the fight. Now they are turning to Syrian reinforcements. That says it all… Moreover, after a month of war, the Russian soldiers are tired. The general staff has not provided for a rotation system to allow the changing of the fighters so that they rest in the rear. Resupply happens randomly. And, in Ukraine, winter is not quite over. It is always cold. Looking at the situation today, it is difficult to imagine a positive outcome for Russia. Unless the Kremlin has resources in reserve that we don’t know. Or that Putin decides to go nuclear.

Hearing you say makes one shudder…

But that’s precisely why Putin is rambling about it! He wants to frighten Western opinion. But don’t worry, that won’t happen. Because this is how things actually work: when he summons his generals, Putin asks them what options are available to him? And they answer him: “The first is to withdraw.” Unthinkable for Putin. So they add: “Of course, we can always try nuclear weapons…” In other words, they explain to him that he has little option to get out of the trap he’s gotten himself into. So he comes out of these meetings mulling over the word “nuclear weapon.” The problem is, he can’t use it; the military won’t let it happen.

Do you know why no nuclear conflict has ever taken place? Because it is the only type of war in which whoever uses this weapon is certain to lose his own life and to have all his loved ones killed, his children, his grandchildren, all the people he loves. In all other types of war, those who start it protect their families. But there, it is impossible because any Russian nuclear initiative would lead to an American response.

Nuclear war is really the only form of war where the aggressor is 100% vulnerable. Suppose this crazy idea crosses Putin’s mind all the same and he resigns himself to implementing it, someone in the chain of command will say to him: “But you are telling me that I must kill my own children and my grandchildren!” In a very curious way, it is the love of one’s neighbor that prevents nuclear war.

Suppose that happens regardless, what would the United States do?

If we learned that such an option was genuinely being considered by Russia, we would take the lead. We would act very quickly because, in this case, it is better to act sooner than later! But an additional problem arises for the Russians: which objective to choose? The problem is that in Ukraine there is no obvious objective like – to take an example – the equivalent of the Pentagon building in Washington where the American general staff is located.

In Ukraine there is no schwerpunkt, that is to say of main objective. That’s the problem with the Russians: they’re advancing, but on what? In my opinion, they are going in circles because they cannot determine what they must conquer. What’s more, they face a highly decentralized guerrilla force that operates without a single command. Now this command is much better organized than the Russian generals had imagined. So attack what, attack where? There’s no answer. Suddenly, the Russians attack the civilian population to wage a war of annihilation. And there, another problem: instead of weakening the resistance, they reinforce it.

“China has just understood that Russia was not capable of invading Ukraine”

The American position, considered timid by some, is not clear. The United States gives the impression of keeping its distance…

What the United States and NATO must do together is continue to arm the Ukrainian resistance, which – I repeat – is extremely motivated. Moreover, the Americans have at their disposal a weapon whose extreme power they had not yet measured: large-scale economic sanctions. By employing various mechanisms, and thanks to the cooperation of the European Union, the economic pressure on Russia is enormous.

Finally, the attitude of the United States is rational. They know that to participate in a war against Russia, on the Russian border, would be madness. The logistical organization that this would require is infeasible. Russia would have the advantage of proximity to the field while the US Army would have the disadvantage of remoteness. It is much simpler to provide the Ukrainians, whose infantry is remarkable, with all the help they need.

Some argue that Ukraine is really just Putin’s minor target. According to them, its plan would be more ambitious: it would consist in redefining the world balances by federating the countries which abhor the West, starting with China.

Nice reasoning… except for one small detail. China has just understood that Russia was not even capable of invading Ukraine! So today, Beijing is already discussing discreetly with Washington, while continuing publicly to tell the Russians what they want to hear. Let’s not forget that the Chinese economy is fragile and that it depends on the American economy for its exports.

Moreover, China is a weak military power. She talks about intervening in Taiwan, but that’s pure posturing: if she was able to do it, she would have done it already. If it did not do so, it is because its landing fleet is too small and Taiwan is 180 kilometers from the Chinese coast. To land there, their warships would therefore have to sail on the high seas for a minimum of seven hours. Plenty of time to be spotted by American planes and satellites… and to be sunk! The Chinese know all this. Furthermore, they do not have a “maritime culture”. Their “Navy” has not fought since the Sino-Japanese War of 1895 where China was crushed. The People’s Liberation Army (the Chinese army) is certainly much more effective than the navy, but it is above all a security force intended to maintain order in the country, starting with the province of Xinjiang (where live the Uyghurs).

Finally, back to basics. Seen from the United States, China poses no military threat. And an agreement between Beijing and Moscow does not change anything because, with what it shows in the war in Ukraine, Russia can no longer be considered a threat. Of course, China cannot afford to publicly abandon Russia. She will therefore continue to make very warm statements about Moscow. But sending him military equipment to help him wage war in Ukraine, certainly not. Because Beijing fears above all the American economic sanctions which would destabilize it at the national level. In fact, the current moment represents a great opportunity to end the Sino-American dispute because our two countries have something precious in common on which we understand each other perfectly: business.