Barely the heavy tanks promised to the Ukrainians, the next step is already on the table: combat aircraft. The Dutch say they are ready to provide it to kyiv, France does not exclude it (while being cautious) and the White House indicates that the subject would be discussed “very carefully”. Admittedly, Joe Biden recently said he was opposed to sending F-16s to Ukraine. But for how long ? One by one, the red lines that Westerners had set themselves at the start of the conflict fell. Will it be the same, soon, for the long-range missiles, demanded for a long time by kyiv?
If these announcement effects are spectacular, the deliveries of Western tanks should not however change the course of the conflict. It is well known in Washington that it would take far more than 31 Abrams tanks (of the 4,000 America has in reserve) to break through the Russian lines – even if they are added to the dozens of German Leopard tanks that Berlin and other European capitals will transfer to Ukrainians.
What do Americans want? We have the feeling that by giving ever more sophisticated weapons to kyiv, they are above all trying to convince Vladimir Putin that he cannot win the war and that he has nothing to hope for from an overbidding, both the price to pay will be high.
A ridge line
But the escalation is already underway and the next few months will give rise to terrible battles. For a simple reason: each of the belligerents remains convinced that he can win. The Ukrainians, with Western help. The Russians, by sending hundreds of thousands of new recruits, “cannon fodder” of modern times, break through the enemy lines. Inhabited by the myth of the Great Patriotic War, Putin is ready for this sacrifice. What do tens of thousands of victims weigh for him compared to the millions of Russians who fell against Nazi Germany?
We can therefore fear that the head of the Kremlin is not very sensitive to warning shots from Washington. This is why some Eastern European countries, such as Poland, are pushing for more decisive aid.
But the Biden administration also wants to “hold back the Ukrainian arm so that it does not reach Russian territory” with Western weapons, notes Thomas Gomart, director of the French Institute for International Relations. At the risk of starting an open war with Russia. Joe Biden is on a crest line. And it will be more and more difficult to hold.