Usually, Vladimir Putin does not miss the summit of the Brics for anything in the world. Even less since his exclusion from the G8 in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea. Each year, the Russian president makes it a point of honor to appear, all smiles, alongside his Chinese, Indian, Brazilian and South African counterparts. But for the 15th edition, from August 22 to 24, 2023 in Johannesburg, there is doubt. The head of state, under arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court and known for his pathological paranoia, will he dare to leave his bunker?
The head of the Kremlin has already received a precious guarantee from the host country: in a five-line press release, published in May, the South African Ministry of Foreign Affairs granted “immunity” to all participants of the summit . “If Vladimir Putin moves, the government will certainly be ready to defy the law to spare him any embarrassment, as it has done in the past, predicts Piers Pigou, researcher at the International Crisis Group. Unfortunately, this will only further tarnish the country’s reputation in the eyes of Westerners.” In 2015, the bloodthirsty President of Sudan, Omar el-Bashir, wanted by the ICC, was received in South Africa, a member of this jurisdiction, and left free as the air.
Suspicious neutrality
In the name of its “neutrality”, South Africa did not condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine during the vote on the UN resolution of March 2022. “Pretoria insists on its non-aligned position in international conflicts , including about the war in Ukraine, continues Piers Pigou. But his actions make his position suspect.” Because between Moscow and Pretoria, relations seem warmer than ever. In January, the Minister of International Relations Naledi Pandor greets Russia as a “friendly country”, on the occasion of the visit of the head of diplomacy Sergei Lavrov. A month later, the armies of the two countries participate, with China, in naval exercises off the Indian Ocean… in full celebration of the first anniversary of the Russian offensive in Ukraine.
But the most compromising affair dates back a few weeks. On May 11, the American ambassador in Pretoria dropped a bombshell at a press conference: “We are convinced that weapons [sud-africaines ont été chargées sur le navire russe Lady R]and I would bet my life on the accuracy of this assertion”, declares Reuben Brigety, embarrassing even the White House, which did not confirm the information. The Russian freighter, under American sanctions, had turned off its radars to dock at the South African naval base of Simon’s Town on December 6, before leaving it on December 9. Although the authorities deny any delivery of arms to Russia after the start of the war, they have still not clarified the nature of the In any case, the spring controversy did not disturb the agenda of the head of the South African army, who immediately went to Moscow, where military cooperation agreements were signed. between the two countries, the friendship dates back… The active support of the Soviets in the fight against apartheid has left its mark. Within the ruling ANC party, many executives were trained in the USSR and do not lack remember that this past obliges them, even if it means offending some.
A balancing act diplomacy
In Washington, the ostensible idyll exasperates more than one. “South Africa could pay dearly for its positioning and lose crucial access to American markets,” said Siphamandla Zondi, professor of international relations at the University of Johannesburg. Several parliamentarians recently sent a letter to the White House calling for Pretoria to be deprived of AGOA, the American law on development in Africa which exempts certain sub-Saharan states from customs duties. It has enabled South Africa to export three billion dollars of goods across the Atlantic in 2022. Cyril Ramaphosa knows it: if he goes too far with Russia, he is risking a lot not only with the United States, its second trading partner (just after Beijing), but also with the Europeans. “Together, they weigh more than China and Russia, with which economic relations are embryonic,” recalls Piers Pigou. Ramaphosa the tightrope walker is perfectly aware of this and in April dispatched a delegation to play soft eyes in Washington.
“South Africa defines itself as non-aligned, but its foreign policy rather reveals a position of multi-alignment, highlights a recent report by the German Marshall Fund (GMF). The country is aware of its importance on the world stage and in take the opportunity to have it both ways.” In other words, to keep its commercial advantages while taking care of its status as the African leader of the “global South”. An economic heavyweight on the continent, Pretoria is also its “main anchor point in terms of security and stability”, according to the GMF. Difficult for Westerners, whose influence is declining on the continent, to cut ties with this partner. The American and European chancelleries have also welcomed the attempt at mediation – unsuccessful – led by Ramaphosa and three other African heads of state in kyiv and Moscow. And in recent days, European officials have been scrambling in South Africa. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna even took advantage of her visit to Pretoria on June 20 to suggest that France participate in the next Brics summit.