After the tanks, the planes! The debate on sending Western heavy tanks to Ukraine has barely been settled by the German and American green lights, when Kyiv’s pressing demands are already focused on combat aircraft. Militarily, it makes sense. From the moment we set ourselves the objective of helping Ukraine to reconquer its territory, there is no reason to ignore this other major category of weapon. Airpower plays a major role in modern high-intensity warfare and is sorely lacking for the Ukrainians.
Should we fear a dangerous escalation? Admittedly, sending in Western planes would constitute an escalation in terms of military effort, but a war has never been won without seeking, in one way or another, to outbid the opponent’s strength. What matters is that the decision to send planes would in no way change the current position of the West, which is: no direct confrontation with Russia but military support for Ukraine to defend its territorial integrity.
Delivering planes to Ukraine actually seems less dangerous than keeping our resolve unclear. As long as Putin can think that the West is in fact not ready to support Ukraine all the way, he will have reason to step up his effort to achieve victory. Conversely, if it comes up against a solid and credible long-term front, it will be encouraged to revise its ambitions downwards.
On combat tanks, France could have been the leader
Because it has always wanted to play a leading role in the field of European defence, France, more than any other, has an interest in placing itself at the forefront of support for Ukraine. However, the battle tank debate was a missed opportunity for our country. By not taking the initiative to send its Leclercs when the Germans and Americans were still hesitating, France missed out on a leadership role that had to be taken. Conversely, the British, on the strength of their early commitment to deliver Challenger 2s, were able to place themselves at the head of a coalition of eight Member States of the European Union meeting in Tallinn.
A Mirage 2000 during an exercise in Taiwan on September 16, 2014.
© / afp.com/SAM YEH
Worse still: by its inaction, France has let the idea prevail that only a decision by Washington was capable of dragging the Europeans along in its wake. For our country, which has intended for years to promote the strategic autonomy of Europe, that is to say the ability of Europeans to act on their own initiative in matters of defence, this is a defeat.
With the debate on the planes, history offers a second chance to France. For the moment, Washington, London and Berlin refuse to take the plunge. From a technical point of view, France has a ready-made solution because its Mirage 2000s are intended to be gradually withdrawn from service in favor of the Rafale. President Macron has made it known that in this matter nothing is excluded. But this position was already his regarding the Leclercs and only led to inaction.
In a war, good opportunities are rare. The art of the strategist is to know how to seize them. More than a fight for Ukraine, we have before us, from all points of view, a fight for Europe.