In the space of a few weeks, Yevgueni Prigojine called Sergei Shoigu a video of “incapable”, “traitor” and “finished bastard”. And invited him to “eat his guts in hell”. Impossible to find an insult in the flowery language of the Russian convicts that Wagner’s boss did not throw in the face of the Minister of Defense… The man with the shaved head also accused his braided “punching-ball” of knowingly depriving his arms and ammunition militia on the Ukrainian front, in Bakhmout; and claimed that his mercenaries were sometimes forced to shoot Russian army soldiers in the back to prevent them from running away like rabbits.
If Yevgueni Prigojine behaves like this, it is because he knows he can afford it: Sergei Shoigu’s rating being at its lowest in Moscow (at a time when the Russian offensive is slipping in Ukraine), he is pushing his advantage in the fight which has opposed him for years to his sworn enemy. Relations between the two men are notoriously abysmal. Like many people around Vladimir Putin, Shoigu despises Prigojine, a former gangster from Leningrad who served time in prison for banditry and participation in a prostitution network involving minors. As soon as he took office in 2012, Shoigu deprived Prigojine of the very lucrative contract that linked his collective catering company to the Russian Ministry of Defence. The “cook of Putin” never digested the offense.
But it was above all the rise of Wagner that poisoned the relationship between the two men. Even before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Wagner’s freedom of action, and in particular the carte blanche which the Kremlin seemed to give him in Africa, fueled the resentment of siloviki (armed forces, police and intelligence services). And since February 24, 2022, Wagner has changed in dimension, establishing itself as a major player. At the cost of considerable losses, the Prigozhin mercenaries almost succeeded in capturing the city of Bakhmout. This is little. But it is more than the Russian army can claim, ridiculed by the routs suffered before kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson. “Shoigu shares are down, comments a connoisseur of the mysteries of the Kremlin. Yes, he is a minister, he has direct access to Putin, but all this is friable. There is a big problem in Ukraine, and it inevitably reflects on him. Prigozhin’s spikes hurt him, they go where the shoe pinches.”
Wagner remains essential
To curb the rise to power of his rival, Choïgou and his ministry deploy treasures of ingenuity to soap Wagner’s board. Last February, the private military company lost its access to Russian prisons, from which it had until then drawn the bulk of its troops. In place of Wagner’s recruiters, representatives of the army now offer Russian detainees a reduction in sentence in exchange for their commitment to the flag. “Prigojine is feverish. He knows he is vulnerable militarily and politically, considers Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow. There is indeed real uncertainty about Wagner’s ability to recruit new fighters, linked to competition with the Russian army in this field. Its future is conditioned by its military successes.” Let the services of Prigozhin’s mercenaries cease to be deemed necessary, and the downfall of their patron could be brutal.
To reduce the importance of Wagner in the Russian system, the general staff multiplies the private military companies engaged in Ukraine. “Redut” and “Patriot”, the two most important, are directly affiliated with the Ministry of Defence. “Potok”, “Fakel” and “Plamia” belong to the gas giant Gazprom. Except that none of these new militias has the size, the experience and the efficiency of Wagner. “Wagner manages an entire section of the front in Ukraine, and not the least important. The others have nothing like that,” recalls historian and specialist in military issues Nikolai Mitrokhin. At present, therefore, Wagner remains unavoidable. “We must handle the idea that Shoigu would want Wagner gone: a defeat at Bakhmout would affect everyone, including the Russian high command,” said a Kremlin specialist. May by withdrawing from Bakhmout, the front would have collapsed. Shoigu knows it.”
Nevertheless, Evgueni Prigojine will have to play tight: if Russia suffers a military defeat in Ukraine, and Wagner will also be carried away. For the mafia entrepreneur converted into a warlord, a Russian victory is needed, of which he would appear to be the main architect. Only then could Prigojine be able, as he dreams, to integrate the circles of power, collect the dividends of his dangerous game and ensure a comfortable and serene retirement, to a post, for example, of deputy or senator. In the meantime, he is condemned to coexist with his rival Sergei Shoigu.