It is a study that challenges “the discourse on a vast exodus” of companies since the invasion of Ukraine. Only 8.5% of companies in the European Union (EU) and G7 countries have left Russia, according to Swiss academic work published on Thursday 19 January.
Before the start of the conflict in February 2022, 2,405 subsidiaries belonging to 1,404 companies from the EU and G7 countries were active in Russia, identified professors Simon Evenett of the University of St. Gallen and Niccolò Pisani of IMD Lausanne, a prestigious business management institute.
At the end of November 2022, nine months after the invasion of Ukraine, less than 9% of the panel studied had already sold at least one Russian subsidiary, the departures mainly concerning American companies, rather than European or Japanese companies, according to their work. . At that date, less than 18% of subsidiaries belonging to companies based in the United States had fully finalized the sale of their Russian subsidiaries, compared to 15% for those belonging to Japanese companies and 8.3% for those belonging to companies of the EU.
“Many companies domiciled in these states have resisted pressure from governments, the media and NGOs to leave Russia since the invasion of Ukraine,” notes the statement from the University of St. Gallen presenting the study. .
Some 120 departures from Western companies
Several factors can explain why companies have not left Russia. Their activity may, for example, not fall under the sanctions. Others may not want to opt out because of the “societal” usefulness of their products, list the authors of the study, citing essential drugs as an example.
Some may also not have found a buyer at a sufficient price, while others, even when they have found a buyer, come up against obstacles that the Russian government may have put in place “to hinder” or “delay the assignment”, and prevent the repatriation of the proceeds of the sale.
But if the number of Western companies opting out “does not increase significantly” within the next year or two, “the willingness or ability of many Western companies to divest from jurisdictions that their governments view as geopolitical rivals could be called into question”, they judge.
According to their research, 120 Western companies had left Russia by the end of November. Among those who are still active there, 19.5% are German, 12.4% are American and 7% Japanese.