The war in Ukraine, at the gates of Europe, has not made defence issues a campaign theme for the early legislative elections. In the programmes, it barely occupies a few lines. Concerning that of Ensemble, supported by the outgoing government. It is only a question of maintaining the increase in the “military budget of the nation”, by doubling it by 2030.
In that of the New Popular Front, the emphasis is placed on “the delivery of necessary weapons” to kyiv “to thwart Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression”. Nothing else. It could not be said better than that there would be no cause for discord with the centrists, if ever the “republican bloc” managed to agree to govern.
And on the National Rally side? Hardly more. It is a question of “preserving full sovereignty over our nuclear deterrent and guaranteeing our complete army model”. And this in “[sanctuarisant] the budgetary trajectory of the Military Programming Law”. This is what the current majority is proposing.
No more question of taking a foot out of NATO
“The program for these legislative elections was envisaged as a cohabitation program, explains Emeric Salmon, rapporteur for the operational budget for defense, within the Finance Committee, during the term of office that ended with the dissolution, who has just been re-elected in the first round in Haute-Saône. What we want, as in the 2022 program, is to increase the defense budget to 3% of GDP. But we are only considering it in the context of the RN’s accession to the presidency of the Republic.”
In the program released after the dissolution, it is also proposed to “refuse any transfer of skills to the European Union in the areas of defense and diplomacy” – something that no one is talking about in this campaign. And to favor a European preference in military purchases made by European states – something that President Emmanuel Macron has been arguing for a long time.
What does the RN want to do with the armed forces if it ever obtained an absolute majority in the National Assembly? Not much different. There is no longer any question of taking a foot out of NATO, as was the case from 1966 to 2009. “France must not leave NATO’s integrated command while we are at war,” explained Jordan Bardella. “This would considerably weaken France’s responsibility on the European scene and its credibility with its allies.”
Forgotten, therefore, is the promise of presidential candidate Marine Le Pen. “The exit from the integrated command is still an objective, but not in a period when an armed conflict is underway on the continent, qualifies Emeric Salmon. We must wait for the resolution of the war in Ukraine for an exit.” On the major Franco-German structural programs, such as the aircraft of the future, the SCAF, and the tank of the future, the MGCS, there is also no longer any question of renunciation. “There will be no questioning of these programs,” affirmed Jordan Bardella.
What help for Ukraine?
However, if this were to reach Matignon, there could well be some hiccups with the Elysée. “Head of the armed forces, for the president, it is an honorary title since it is the Prime Minister who holds the purse strings,” affirmed Marine Le Pen. An RN Minister of the Armed Forces could quite refuse to give the green light to arms transfers such as the Mirage 2000-5 fighter planes promised to Ukraine by Emmanuel Macron, or other types of aid. The RN’s position is not to deliver so-called “offensive” weapons, likely to be used on Russian territory.
“One of the sources of concern is the entry into the National Assembly’s defense committee of people who are pro-Russian, explains Cédric Perrin (Les Républicains), president of the Senate’s Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces Committee. On aid to Ukraine, they could say that, given public finances, there are no means to acquire equipment for Ukraine, which would be an excuse for not helping it, when fundamentally, today, our future is being played out in Ukraine.”
The head of state, as head of the armed forces, can decide alone to send forces abroad, as was the case during Operation Serval in Mali in January 2013. But if funds are necessary to continue an external operation, an RN government could quite easily block them, jeopardizing the smooth running of the intervention. The RN has indicated that it refuses to send any French soldiers to Ukraine, which Emmanuel Macron officially left on the table to make Vladimir Putin understand that this option was not ruled out.
Even if it is not mentioned in the programs, many RN elected officials are calling for the return of “military service”. They would like to entrust the armies with the task of “getting young people back on the right path”, as the outgoing deputy of the Somme, Jean-Philippe Tanguy, was able to express after the urban violence of June 2023. This return of a form of conscription is however not requested by the Armed Forces, where there is fear that this supervision mission will harm the accomplishment of other missions.
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