War in Ukraine: kyiv counter-offensive “has begun”, according to the ISW

War in Ukraine kyiv counter offensive has begun according to the

The words “counter-offensive” have so far not been uttered by kyiv but, according to Moscow, the current fighting by Ukrainian forces in the south-east of the country fits it well. The offensive bypasses the southern basin of the Dnieper River massively flooded by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, where the authorities are still monitoring the water level after the deadly floods that followed. When the dam broke, an explosion was detected at its location, reports a Norwegian seismology institute.

Zelensky salutes his troops engaged in “hard fighting”

“To our soldiers, to all those who are engaged in particularly hard fighting these days: we are witnesses of your heroism, and we are grateful for every minute of your life”, launched Volodymyr Zelensky on the evening of Friday 9 June, in his daily video message.

But the Ukrainian president has so far been careful not to mention a counter-offensive, or even a specific military operation, conforming to the attitude adopted for weeks by officials in kyiv. “We focus our attention on all the places where our actions are required and where the enemy can be defeated,” he said.

The Kremlin announces that it has repelled a Ukrainian offensive

The Russian army for its part claimed to have repelled in recent days several waves of Ukrainian attacks including armored vehicles, in particular in the region of Zaporizhia (southeast), above the dam and the flooded area. The Kremlin claimed that this was the much-talked-about counter-offensive of the Ukrainians, and that it had been defeated. “We can say that this offensive has begun,” President Vladimir Putin said in a video posted on Telegram.

The Russian Ministry of Defense detailed that “over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have continued their attempts to carry out offensives in the Yuzhno-Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions”, either to the east and to the south -est, ensuring that these had been defeated. The Ukrainian army could seek in this region to cut the Russian logistics lines running from north to south, along the Sea of ​​Azov, and isolate the south and Crimea.

For many observers, the fighting in the Southeast attests that “the Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun”, writes the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which however specifies that it does not expect ” one big operation” but to a series of different coordinated actions, as is currently the case. In recent weeks, Ukraine appeared to test Russian positions along the front line from south to east, a way experts say to prepare for an assault to retake occupied territories, including annexed Crimea in 2014.

New military aid from Washington for kyiv

According to Vladimir Putin, the Ukrainian troops at this stage “have not achieved their objective on any of the battlefields”, but still have a vast “offensive potential” fueled by modern armaments delivered by the West.

These were further increased on Friday June 9 by the United States, which announced a new tranche of two billion dollars in military aid, mainly anti-aircraft defense equipment and ammunition. This new aid, which will take several months to reach Kiev, includes additional ammunition for Patriot anti-aircraft systems, older generation Hawk systems and associated missiles, 105 and 203 mm artillery ammunition, Puma drones, laser-guided rockets as well as support for the training of soldiers and the maintenance of this equipment. The United States, the largest donor country to Ukraine, has delivered or promised more than $39.7 billion in various weapons to Kiev forces since the start of the Russian offensive on February 24, 2022, according to the American ministry of defense.

Drone attack in Odessa region kills at least 3

Three people were killed and 26 injured on Saturday in the Odessa region of southern Ukraine in a fire caused by falling debris from drones destroyed by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense, according to regional authorities. .

“During the night, the (Russian) enemy attacked in the Odessa region with drones,” said a statement from these authorities posted on social networks. All machinery was destroyed but debris fell on an apartment building, causing fire and damage to several buildings. “Unfortunately, there are casualties among the civilian population,” added the Ukrainian authorities. Among the injured are three children, the same sources said.

After the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, deadly floods

In the regions of Kherson and Mykolaiv, in the south, the floods caused by the destruction, Tuesday June 6, of the Kakhovka dam killed at least 13 people: eight in the areas under Russian occupation, and five in those under Ukrainian control, where the authorities also report 13 missing.

Both sides blame each other for the destruction of the dam. But the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, ruled on Friday that “everything seemed to indicate” that Russia was responsible. Ukraine accused Russia on Tuesday of having mined the engine room of the dam and of having deliberately dynamited it, flooding a basin of some 600 km2 up to the Black Sea, devastated and impassable including for Ukrainian armored vehicles. .

An explosion detected when the dam gave way

However, the Norwegian seismology institute Norsar indicated on Friday that it had detected, from a Romanian station, a powerful “explosion” at the location of the dam when it gave way, confirming the idea that the hydroelectric dam, located in a area under Russian control, has not yielded due to damage suffered during bombardments in the previous months as claimed by Russia.

“We are sure there was an explosion,” Ben Dando, a Norsar section chief, told AFP. According to this independent seismological research institute, the explosion occurred at 2:54 a.m. local time, on a site whose coordinates correspond to that of the Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper. Its magnitude is “between 1 and 2”, said Norsar, which has not yet calculated its equivalent in tonnes of TNT, which requires integrating many factors. “It’s not a weak explosion,” Dando said.

In flooded areas, the water level under surveillance

“According to forecasts, the rising waters may last another 10 days,” Vladimir Saldo, head of the Russian-occupied part of the Kherson region, said on Telegram. “The water has already entered the houses and the streets. Every two hours, I go out to see if the water continues to rise,” Tatyana Ioenko, a resident of Chornobaivka, told AFP.

On the other side of the river, “35 localities are still flooded on the right bank but the water is gradually receding,” said Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the Ukrainian administration in the region, in the evening. In Kherson, the city on the right bank of the Dnieper, “the level was 5.38 meters this morning, and in the evening it had dropped to about 5 meters”, he added, on Telegram messaging. “The Russians continue to terrorize Kherson,” he said again, reporting two injuries.

Ukrainian “prisoners of war” handed over to Hungary

“Ukrainian prisoners of war” have been handed over to Hungary, announced the Russian Orthodox Church, which acted as an intermediary, while Kiev regretted not having been involved in the negotiations. The group is from Transcarpathia, a region located in western Ukraine which is home to a large Magyar community, according to the same source. If the Ukrainian authorities welcomed “the release of prisoners of war, which is always good news”, they regretted having been informed of it by the media.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban maintains contact with the Kremlin and has forged strong ties with the Russian Orthodox Church. It was thanks to his support that Patriarch Kirill, a faithful supporter of the military offensive launched by Vladimir Putin against Ukraine, escaped EU sanctions last year, in the name of defending “freedom religious”. The Hungarian leader also maintains complicated relations with kyiv, which he refuses to help militarily. The quarrel between the two neighboring countries is not new, Hungary has long castigated a series of laws reinforcing the use of the Ukrainian language, according to it to the detriment of the Magyar minority in Transcarpathia.

kyiv will be able to ally with Westerners before international justice

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has authorized dozens of Ukraine’s Western allies to “intervene” alongside Kiev in its proceedings against Moscow brought before the court since the Russian invasion, according to a decision published on Friday (June 9th). .

Kiev appealed to the UN’s highest court shortly after the invasion began, accusing Moscow of planning genocide, and of wrongly using allegations of genocide in eastern Ukraine to justify its invasion. As an emergency measure, the ICJ in March 2022 ordered Russia to suspend its offensive. Many of Ukraine’s allies subsequently asked to be allowed to “intervene” in the matter. Declarations of intervention submitted by 32 countries are now “admissible”, according to an order of the ICJ, which authorizes in particular France, Great Britain and Germany to support Ukraine – the ICJ however rejecting the request of the States -United. The allies’ interventions mainly concern the jurisdiction of the ICJ over the case. A court decision could take months or even years.

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