“For the love of God, this man cannot stay in power.” This sentence, dropped at the end of March by Joe Biden in reference to the invasion of Russia in Ukraine, had the effect of a bomb, forcing the spokesperson for the White House to immediately qualify these remarks. French President Emmanuel Macron, supported by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, quickly dissociated himself from the American president, calling for “the escalation of neither words nor actions” to be avoided. If Joe Biden has not made any new sensational outings since then, the American president has not softened his speech towards the Kremlin, insisting on the strategic failure of the country.
Far from being intimidated by Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats, the latter recently asked Congress for a colossal budget extension of 33 billion dollars to deliver more military aid to kyiv and intends to discuss “additional sanctions” with members of the G7 this week. For historian and political scientist Nicole Bacharan, a specialist in the United States, if in form the political discourse of the United States is clearly more virulent than that of the Europeans, in substance the Westerners work together.
L’Express: What interest does Joe Biden have in beefing up his game vis-à-vis Russia?
Nicholas Bacharan : I think the fundamental interest is the same as that of the Europeans. He has a very clear vision: Vladimir Putin’s war calls into question all security in Europe. The primary goal is therefore to preserve this security. To achieve this, Vladimir Putin would have to be stopped or even rolled back. I think that in Paris and in Washington everyone is more or less convinced that as long as Vladimir Putin is not arrested, he will continue to advance, whether in Ukrainian territories or outside the country. And since no NATO country wants to send troops there, and we can quite understand why, it is necessary both to reinforce NATO’s eastern border, to apply economic sanctions which weigh down the effort of Russian war and strengthen military aid to Ukrainians who are fighting alone.
Joe Biden and his administration today hold a very offensive speech vis-à-vis Putin. Do they stay on the same wavelength with the Europeans?
I have wondered a lot about certain reactions in Europe highlighting the so-called ‘reckless’ language of Joe Biden, who promises, for example, an absolutely colossal arms delivery budget. Political expression is really contrasted between the United States, which is at the forefront and the Europeans more measured in language. But basically, if you scratch hard, there is no fundamental difference in their speech. When Joe Biden promises new arms deliveries, it is to obvious to establish a balance of power with Russia, to try to open negotiations with a stronger position. This does not contradict the European vision. Things may be slow and difficult at the European Commission, but they still lead to an embargo on Russian hydrocarbons, it is a colossal measure.
When Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says bluntly that he wants “to see Russia weakened to such a degree that they can’t do the same kind of things as the invasion of Ukraine” , it is obvious and it is also the European goal. Ditto when the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, says that “the goal is victory”. However, none formulated what exactly victory would be. Would that mean getting Crimea back? All of Donbass? According to the statement from the Elysée Palace, which by the way does not at all resemble that of the Kremlin, Emmanuel Macron allegedly told Vladimir Putin during their last conversation that it was necessary to “preserve and guarantee the territorial sovereignty of all of Ukraine “. On the merits Macron and Biden are therefore saying the same thing.
Are there negotiations between the United States and Russia? Or does Putin only want to talk to Europe?
Putin doesn’t talk to anyone except when Europeans sometimes beg him. Emmanuel Macron had not spoken to him since Boutcha. And before talking to Putin two days ago, Emmanuel Macron first spoke to Zelenski. Today, the discussion is between Zelenski and the NATO countries including the United States and France. The Ukrainian president has given signals, he would like to negotiate, but not surrender. But on the Russian side there are currently no negotiations.
Putin never negotiated. In the months before the war, he received and spoke to many people, but he never gave up on anything. As a result, today we find ourselves with miserable humanitarian corridors which make it possible to evacuate 50 people on devastated roads… and we learn a little more every day that people supposed to be evacuated are in fact deported to Russia. When you see the press releases from the Elysée and the Kremlin, they couldn’t discuss anything, it’s a dialogue of the deaf.
What does the American public think of Joe Biden’s strategy in Ukraine?
It’s very interesting. In the latest survey of Washington Post/ABC News which appeared Monday morning on the subject, we can observe that a very large majority of Americans are in favor of an increase in arms deliveries and sanctions. But they are also very afraid of escalation and of a nuclear response. Again, it’s not very different from the Europeans, except that the Americans are on the other side of the Atlantic so they don’t necessarily have quite the same nervousness.
The idea that Ukraine must be supported because if Russia is not stopped it will continue its aggressions and perhaps invade NATO countries is very widespread in American opinion. What struck me as very telling in this poll is that 21% of Americans would support an American military intervention. That’s about one person in five, that’s huge, especially in a country that is fundamentally against any intervention abroad. This is proof that the notion of the Russian threat and disgust at the information we have about what is happening on the ground in Ukraine is very strong in public opinion.
What impact can the policy pursued by Joe Biden have at the national level, in particular on the midterms in November?
It is very difficult to appreciate today. Whatever happens, since last summer and the debacle in Kabul, almost nothing has been credited to Joe Biden. He has a relatively stable approval rating around 42%. The polls are moving very little, even if he has managed to pass budgetary and social projects such as his major infrastructure investment plan. He has 47% approval for his handling of the crisis in Ukraine. However, support for sanctions and arms sales is much stronger. The American president therefore does not really benefit from it politically.
The Ukrainian question will obviously be an issue of the midterms to come, but we have no idea where we will be at that time. Moreover, today there is a relative consensus between Democrats and Republicans on the subject, which suggests that this will not necessarily be a decisive issue. Questions relating to inflation and energy prices are likely to play a major role. And of course, the question of abortion has just been added and can become a strong element of these elections, without necessarily changing everything.