The balance of power is changing on the Ukrainian front. After a series of humiliating setbacks in the fall, Russian forces scored their first success in many months when they recently captured Soledar, a town in the east of the country. In recent weeks, the latter have indeed intensified their assaults on the eastern front, in particular on Bakhmout, a city that Moscow has been trying to conquer since the summer, inflicting considerable destruction on it.
“The situation has hardened,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address on Wednesday evening, giving a catastrophic assessment of the situation in Donetsk province. According to many observers, Russia, with hundreds of thousands of reservists called up by the Kremlin in September and October, is preparing a new major offensive around February 24, the first anniversary of the invasion.
Between 300,000 and 500,000 Russian soldiers
A theory widely relayed by the Ukrainian Minister of Defense in person, traveling to France to meet President Emmanuel Macron and obtain the purchase of air defense radars. “We also need to be ready as soon as possible, and that’s why we need weapons, to contain the enemy”, insisted Wednesday evening on BFMTV Oleksiï Reznikov, who is pressuring European nations to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
“We do not underestimate our enemy. We see that he is preparing very seriously for the offensive”, he continued, putting forward the figure of “500,000 Russian soldiers” mobilized by the Kremlin. “Officially, they announced 300,000, but when you see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments, it is much more. We think that since they live in symbolism, they will try to try something at the around February 24”, explained the Ukrainian minister, adding that this offensive would probably take place on “two axes”.
Reconquer annexed oblasts
The Russian offensive could indeed take place on two fronts: in the east, when kyiv suspects Vladimir Putin of wanting to retake the Donbass before spring, and in the south, where the fighting is also particularly violent, especially around the municipality of Vougledar. Same story from the side from the Institute for the Study of War who has estimated in recent days that Russia could intensify its operations in the east and south. The American think-tank, however, questions Moscow’s ability to deploy significant resources on these vast front lines.
“It would be more logical for the Russians to attack on several fronts: the goal is to maintain pressure on the Ukrainian forces who are also preparing an offensive, so as not to leave them freedom of action, explains to L’Express the general Dominique Trinquand: For the former head of the French military mission to the UN, the date of February 24 is probably not as symbolic as that for the Russians. february.
“I do not believe in the general offensive on Ukraine knowing that President Putin must have understood that he could no longer conquer Ukraine. On the other hand, it is possible for him to reconquer the annexed oblasts (Luhansk and Donetsk) . 300,000 men is huge”, underlines the military expert, for whom the mobilization of reservists “is starting to produce its effects”, the mobilized people having had time to be trained and equipped to strengthen the system.
“The Russians are in a logic of steamroller”
Ukrainian side on the other hand, the fighters mark the blow. “We are engaged in a race against time before a spring which is likely to be very hot. It is imperative that the Ukrainians upgrade their forces which are very worn out to face the Russian offensive, estimates with L’ Express General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the review National Defensehighlighting the war effort made by the Ukrainians for a year, between fierce fighting and attempts to ensure the continuity of the functioning of their bombarded country.
“In addition, the Russians are in a logic of steamroller in which the price of human value is not at all the same as for the Ukrainians who want to preserve their workforce as much as possible, explains the general. This is the reason for which they systematically ask for armored vehicles, heavy means from the West.”
In any case, a broad offensive carried out on two fronts simultaneously would force the Ukrainians to disperse their forces and go on the defensive. A dynamic opposite to that, offensive, which they knew between summer and autumn with the reconquest of Kherson. It remains to be seen whether kyiv will try to stubbornly defend all its positions or whether it will sacrifice one place to favor another.