In a hell of mines, trenches and strongholds, the Ukrainian forces continue step by step to reconquer their occupied territories in the south and east of the country. Since the launch of the counter-offensive in early June, more than 240 square kilometers have been recaptured. “In the direction of Mala Tokmachka and Robotyne, in the Zaporizhia region [sud]we have had success and we are consolidating our achievements”, indicated, on July 31, the Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar. The objective: to break through the solid defenses erected by the Russians in recent months, then to reach , eventually, the towns of Melitopol and Berdiansk – a logistics hub for the former, a strategic port for the latter.
“Such a breakthrough would be catastrophic for Moscow and would allow Ukrainian forces to cut the Russian force in the south of the country in two,” points out General (2S) Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense Review. We are still far from it, but there is movement and the Ukrainian counter-offensive seems to be registering more positive results than in the past weeks.” On July 27, the Ukrainian authorities thus announced the recapture of the village of Staromayorske, in the Donetsk Oblast, to the east.
Open a breach
Further west, in the region of Zaporijia, the Ukrainian forces would also have managed to bring the fight up to the positions fortified by Moscow. “The enemy managed to break into three sections of our first line of defense, Russian occupation official Vladimir Rogov admitted on July 26 on Telegram. The fighters of these brigades were trained abroad and the brigades themselves are equipped with Western military hardware, including Leopard tanks and Bradley armor.”
At this stage, the main challenge for the Ukrainian forces remains to succeed in opening a breach in the three successive lines of defense installed by the Russians along the front line, before attempting to rush into them to make rapid progress in territory. enemy. “If necessary, the Russian troops would find themselves in an extremely delicate situation, underlines Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher in armaments and prospective at the French Institute of International Relations. This could break the link between the Russian front line and its rear. and would result in risks of localized collapses.”
At the same time, Ukrainian forces have also moved closer in recent weeks to the city of Bakhmout, conquered at the end of May by Wagner’s forces after months of fierce fighting. “At the moment, the deployment of Russian troops resembles an ark, concentrated in Bakhmout. And they are semi-encircled. It is impossible not to take advantage of this,” Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky said on July 20. , Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces.
New tactic
In total, according to kyiv, about 37 square kilometers have been liberated in this area since the beginning of June. A modest progression, but sufficient to put constant pressure on this highly symbolic city for Moscow. “The Russians cannot afford to lose Bakhmout, which is their only victory in recent months, judge General Pellistrandi. This forces them to maintain troops there who cannot be sent as reinforcements in the south where the main axis of effort of the Ukrainians.”
After heavy losses recorded during the first weeks of the offensive in June, the Ukrainian forces have recently evolved their doctrine. Armored offensives across minefields to open a breach were replaced by massive artillery shelling of enemy defences, combined with a deep strike campaign using long-range British Strom Shadow or French Scalp missiles. “The Ukrainians are now concentrating their fire on the Russian counter-battery positions, in order to be able to attack without being trapped by the opposing artillery”, observes Léo Péria-Peigné.
A tactic that could begin to bear fruit. “Throughout the south, common problems for Russian commanders are most likely a lack of artillery ammunition, lack of reserves and problems securing the flanks of defense units,” British intelligence said in a memo released on May 1. august. “From the moment when the enemy lines are difficult to cross, you have to take the time to break them methodically rather than rushing headlong with your armored vehicles, agrees General Pellistrandi. The Ukrainians know that tank resources are relatively small, they are now more cautious.”