Waking up one morning with no internet access at all, anywhere. The scenario seems to belong to fiction and yet… The threat of an Internet shutdown by Russia is taken seriously. It could intervene in response to the sanctions taken by Western countries against Moscow, in retaliation for its aggression against Ukraine on February 24.
An action by a country at war on the submarine cables that connect hundreds of different countries of the world to the magic of online communication is not contrary to international law, informs L’Express Camille Morel, researcher attached at the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies (IESD) of Jean-Moulin-Lyon-III University. The specialist considers that the threat is real, and the damage to the cables in the way claimed by Moscow could be received as a casus belli.
The map of submarine cables around the world.
Telegeography
L’Express: Is Russia’s Internet shutdown a real threat?
Camille Morel: Since 2014, Russia has been sending ships near these underwater infrastructures, in particular an oceanographic vessel that can act on the cables. You don’t need a lot of technology to damage them, a simple anchor can be enough, but to be more discreet, it requires more sophisticated equipment. In parallel with this repeated presence of ships, Russia seeks to isolate itself from the global Internet in order to be able to do without it. These two elements show that Russia can indeed act. If we do not know what Moscow’s will is, the country is already carrying out cyberattacks on other communication systems, this is another indication that this action is possible.
Moreover, NATO countries fear such action in this conflict, and point the finger more widely at this threat to submarine cables. This war gives an element that can justify the realization of this threat because all the communication infrastructures are obvious strategic targets to put pressure on the powers outside the conflict.
What repercussions could such an act have on the conflict, on an international scale?
It depends on how the deterioration is done. If it is carried out in a assertive way, it will create at least an internationalization of the conflict because it is a strong symbolic action, even before the economic repercussions. This attack could be seen as a casus belli. This is a possible option in a response to sanctions, but unlikely.
On the other hand, Russia can choose a more discreet way of acting, and this option seems more possible and consistent with the way the country already acts in cyberspace, in addition to posing difficulties for Western countries. The latter would then be prevented from reacting formally, as long as they have not attributed and proven that it is an action carried out by Russia.
To see which cable would be affected or cut, if it is only one or several, and according to the intensity of the impact… If the consequences are not serious, we will be able to transmit via another way.
How are the cables protected?
There are private actors who are divided into maintenance areas to manage day-to-day problems on the one hand. On the other hand, there are the concerns, or the renewed attention, of the national navies which carry out surveillance in waters under sovereignty. But it’s impossible to cover the entire length of the cable, some of which go over the high seas, and permanently.
If today it appears necessary to reinforce this monitoring, there are more than 450 cables, it is enormous. Continuous monitoring is not possible, it would be very expensive. These cables connect at least two States, but it can be more, so it is necessary to share competences between States but also between States and private actors.
Why hasn’t Russia taken action yet?
There is a very strong interdependence of the flows, which has so far limited the threat. Russia could hardly act without being sure of being protected from the Internet shutdown. But the difference today is that Moscow has developed a legal arsenal and made practical tests to be able to continue to live without the global Internet. Russia is today, more than yesterday, able to attack the cables without being too impacted. Afterwards, she may not have the real abilities.
In addition, it should be known that international law authorizes the action of the belligerents on the cables in the high seas, it is a margin of maneuver which exists for the countries in conflict. A claimed action by Russia would therefore not be contrary to international law.