War in Ukraine: hypersonic, unstoppable and devastating missiles

The Russian Defense Ministry said on Saturday March 19 that it had used “Kinjal” hypersonic missiles the day before to destroy an underground weapons warehouse in western Ukraine. Russia had never previously reported the use of this ballistic missile in the two conflicts where it is belligerent, Ukraine and Syria. He has been deployed many times in exercises since the first successful test in 2018. According to the state agency Ria Novosti, his employment is a first. This type of missile is potentially undetectable and much faster than conventional cruise missiles, capable of flying at more than five times the speed of sound (Mach 5, or more than 6000 km/h), defies all anti-aircraft defense systems. -air, according to Moscow.

There are two categories of hypersonic system. First there are the HCMs, cruise missiles capable of flying much faster than the classic version. Then there are the HGVs, gliders dropped into low orbit by ballistic missiles. They are capable of surfing the high layers of the atmosphere, at an altitude of several tens of kilometers, of changing course and of carrying out avoidance maneuvers. They are therefore less likely to be detected than an intercontinental missile, whose bell-shaped trajectory, sometimes beyond a thousand kilometers in altitude, is more predictable.

Russia at the forefront

Three decades after the fall of the USSR, the great powers are starting a new arms race, based on hypersonic technologies. In this race, strong in Soviet heritage, Russia has a slight head start. She announced on October 4 the success of two test firings, from a submarine, of hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM) Zircon. Its president, Vladimir Putin, boasts of holding “the absolute weapon” to pierce American and European anti-missile shields with his HGV, the Avanguard glider, commissioned at the end of 2019, and likely to make Moscow-New York in less than a quarter of an hour, thanks to a top speed of over 33,000 km/h (Mach 27). “We don’t know how to defend ourselves against this technology and China and Russia don’t know either,” warned Robert Wood.

The race is not just about the great powers. France is developing a hypersonic cruise missile by 2035 to equip its planes participating in nuclear deterrence. And it entrusted ArianeGroup with the development of a glider, capable of equipping the missiles of its nuclear ballistic missile submarines. This “V-Max” project, for “Experimental Maneuvering Vehicle”, should make its first flight at the end of 2021, announced in May the Minister of Defense, Florence Parly.

India, Australia, the United Kingdom and Japan have also embarked on a hypersonic weapons program. Another country has recently made a thunderous entry into the race, with nuclear ambitions: North Korea. Pyongyang said at the end of September that it had successfully tested its first hypersonic glider, dubbed Hwasong-8. Then she aired a few days later pictures of this gun during a rocket exhibition visited by its leader, Kim Jong-Un. This should push its neighbor to the south to pursue fundamental research in this field, in the same way as Israel and Iran, as noted in a recent U.S. Congress report.

The United States will not be left behind

And the United States? They still haven’t deployed hypersonic weapons, unlike Russia and China. But they could quickly catch up, with no less than six programs to develop missiles, such as gliders, some by 2025. One of its main arms suppliers, Lockheed Martin, inaugurated a dedicated production unit, Alabama, in early October. And on the 21st, theU.S. Navy announced the successful testing of prototype hypersonic missile components in Virginia. But the next day the Pentagon has acknowledged the failure of a test concerning a missile tested in Alaska. Already, in April, the first life-size test of its ARRW airborne glider had not proved conclusive.

“The fact that Russia would have taken the lead is to be put into perspective, because there is a difference between the announcement of the deployment of a device and its mass production, which can be very expensive, argues Benjamin Hautecouverture, researcher to the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS). In general, American investments in military research and development remain well above those of others.”

The American delay in the manufacture of hypersonic weapons is perhaps explained by questions about the interest of further development of this technology in terms of deterrence, while ballistic missiles retain relevance. “Missile shields designed to protect against long-range missiles have, up to now, never been completely reliable, if only 90%, explains Joseph Henrotin, researcher at the Institute of Comparative Strategy. Above all, the number of interceptors remains far below the number of warheads that can be launched” – 1625 nuclear warheads deployed by Russia and 1800 by the United States according to the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Ballistic missile deterrence still has a bright future ahead of it. “This is why the military are more reserved when it comes to the operational interest of hypersonic systems, whether gliders or cruise missiles”, confirms Benjamin Hautecouverture. But it is clear that this does not curb the ambitions of Beijing, Moscow and others. “So that the development of hypersonic systems does not risk altering the strategic stability between powers, it would be necessary to launch a dialogue on their deployment and their use, argues the researcher. Except that the tensions are too strong between the United States, China and Russia to begin such a strategic exchange.” Still in its infancy, the hypersonic arms race is not about to stop.