War in Ukraine: how the princes of the Gulfs became the new kings of the world

A fist-to-fist salute, followed by a masterful slap. Joe Biden, 79, president of the world’s leading power, has still not recovered from the lesson in realism inflicted on him by Mohammed bin Salman (alias MBS), barely 37, during the summer.

Faced with soaring oil prices, the American head of state decided, in mid-July, to put aside his human rights diplomacy to go to Jeddah and meet the young Saudi prince in person. Objective: convince the manager de facto of the kingdom to increase its oil production. But MBS does not give up, and chooses on the contrary to reduce its black gold exports. Prices rise, Biden returns humiliated. “At the White House, this decision was experienced as a stab in the back, underlines Robert Mogielnicki, researcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. It gave ammunition to Joe Biden’s political opponents before the elections. mid-term.” The worst scenario for the Democratic administration, and the symbol of a new balance of power on the international scene.

MBS, face of a new generation of leaders

Proof of the importance he has acquired, the Saudi prince remains courted by the Biden administration, despite this affront: in recent days, the White House has been trying to have the legal proceedings against MBS in the United States, incriminated for his role in the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, an American resident at the time of his death. “In the context of the war in Ukraine, MBS transforms the great strength of Saudi Arabia, its oil, into a devastating weapon on the international scene, underlines David Ottaway, researcher at the Wilson Center. capable of producing twelve million barrels a day, you alone cannot solve the global energy problem created by this war, but you can make a huge difference…”

From the height of his imposing stature, at the head of an immense country and an unparalleled fortune, MBS embodies this new generation of Gulf leaders, as rich as they are powerful. Ben Salman in Saudi Arabia, Mohammed ben Zayed (alias MBZ) in the United Arab Emirates, the Emir Al Thani in Qatar… Young people, essential to the West, they can now afford to dictate their own rules of the game.

From the first days of the war in Ukraine, European leaders rush to the Gulf and begin a tour of the palaces of Doha, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. All want to ensure massive arrivals of gas and oil from the Middle East, to compensate for Russian energy cuts. Two months later, in May, the European Commission publishes the roadmap of its “strategic partnership with the Gulf”, in which it undertakes to promote “the stability of the region” in exchange for “energy security”. .

Emmanuel Macron is not to be outdone: on May 15, he flies to the United Arab Emirates, before welcoming President MBZ in Paris on July 18, then the Saudi Prince MBS ten days later. Each time, he alternates visits to castles and sumptuous dinners for his guests. “This trip to France was the first in the West for bin Salman since the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, recalls Christopher Davidson, Gulf specialist and author of From Sheikhs to Sultanism (Hurst, 2021). As such, Emmanuel Macron took a huge political risk, just like Joe Biden with his trip to Saudi Arabia. The French president was also betrayed, even insulted, by the Saudi decision on oil production at the end of the summer.

Soaring energy prices, gigantic windfall for the Gulf

The feelings of our leaders, however, matter little, so dependent has Europe become on the leaders of the Gulf. The decision to deprive itself, in the medium term, of Russian hydrocarbons leaves our continent with few options. “On gas, for example, Qatar is the natural alternative to Russia for Europe, explains Tobias Borck, Gulf specialist at the Royal United Services Institute. The emirate is already one of the three main gas producers. liquefied natural gas, and it will increase its production capacities by 60 to 70% by 2027: Qatar will find itself at the world summit of gas, and will take on gigantic importance for Europe.”

For the Gulf, the war in Ukraine pays off. A lot. Their economies are already reaping the benefits of soaring energy prices, not least thanks to a summer of panic in global markets. “Before the Russian invasion, even Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the United Arab Emirates had to sell bonds on the international market, points out Christopher Davidson. This year, these Gulf countries did not have to do so, this which means they are in a much better financial position than a year ago.”

These dividends will help the petromonarchies in their transitions to the post-oil world, for which the whole Gulf has launched titanic works. For “its” Football World Cup and its infrastructure, Qatar has spent more than 200 billion dollars. Saudi Arabia is advancing its “Vision 2030” reform plan, developed personally by MBS, and which will cost the kingdom several trillions of dollars. On the agenda: becoming a giant in renewable energies, a world leader in tourism or even developing a powerful defense industry.

The gains are not only financial for the Gulf. On the diplomatic level, the sequence allows petromonarchies to assert their independence and monetize their influence. At the UN, they alternate between abstention and condemnation of Russia. But, since the beginning of autumn, the Gulf has increasingly displayed a certain proximity to Moscow. While MBS multiplies the official phone calls to the Kremlin, the Emir Al Thani went to talk with Vladimir Putin in Astana, at the beginning of October, officially in order to launch a mediation on Ukraine. According to our information, it was above all a question of ensuring that Russia did not disrupt the World Cup a month later. MBZ, he flew to Moscow on October 11, there also to negotiate peace according to the official version. “In reality, the leaders of the Gulf are not engaging in mediation on Ukraine, as Turkish President Erdogan can do, believes Christopher Davidson. For them, it is above all a pretext: they want to show Russia that their door remains open, because all have made joint investments with Moscow and they do not want to insult the future.”

Putin is not the only great leader cajoled by the Gulf. Since this summer, rumors have announced an imminent trip by Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia, which would be the Chinese president’s first state visit abroad since his triumphant re-election to the Communist Party Congress. This year, the Saudi kingdom became the largest oil exporter to China, with two million barrels per day. Such a visit by Xi to Riyadh would be a consecration of the new essential role of MBS. And the sign that, at only 37 years old, the future of the world belongs to him.