At a time when the first Russian bombs fell on Ukraine, on the night of February 23 to 24, Joe Biden sent his “prayers” to the “brave and proud people” of this country. And then what ? Economic sanctions to asphyxiate the Moscow Bear, with a devouring appetite? The first, which fell before the offensive, did not deter Vladimir Putin from launching the attack. Will the following bring him back to his senses? One thing is certain, the Americans will not send troops to Kiev.
Joe Biden ruled out this option almost three months ago, at a time when Westerners were still hoping that the master of the Kremlin would swallow his crazy ambitions. Then, the United States was among the first countries to evacuate its citizens, and with them the approximately 160 soldiers in Ukraine to train the local army. Desertion or the choice of reason? Came out in disaster this summer from the war in Afghanistan, the Americans have no intention of re-engaging in a new military conflict which could degenerate into “world war” – in the words of Joe Biden – in the event of a direct confrontation. between Russian and American soldiers. Besides, what’s the point of opening a new front in a country that barely 3 out of 10 Americans are able to place on a map (according to a February 2022 survey by the Morning Consult institute)? The calculation is cynical but it may be part of the equation, nine months from the midterm elections.
Electroshock for Westerners
The Republican opposition is in any case firing on all cylinders. This Thursday, she shoots red balls at “Sleepy Joe”, accused of waking up too late. According to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, none of this would have happened “if we hadn’t withdrawn hastily from Afghanistan”; and his cronies to blame the president, whose “tough talk on Russia was never followed by strong action”.
Was it necessary to announce so early that the American army, the only one which Moscow visibly fears, would do nothing in Ukraine? Since this statement in early December, Joe Biden has done everything to maintain the pressure despite everything, alerted day after day to the imminence of the invasion, even if it means being accused of being an alarmist in European capitals. The result is there, anticipated by American intelligence down to its details. And the stark reality is stark in the eyes of the world: Ukraine will have to face the onslaught of its neighbor with its own men.
“It has always been clear that the Americans would not defend Ukraine directly, underlines Ian Lesser, vice-president of the German Marshall Fund. All efforts have been put on deterrence to avoid any overflow on NATO member states” . Beyond the financial sanctions, “the Americans can continue to provide critical material support, he continues. According to several reports, Turkey is still doing it today.”
No one knows Vladimir Putin’s intention. But his declaration of war is an electric shock for the Western allies. In 2012, during the presidential campaign in the United States, the Republican Mitt Romney considered that Russia was, “without a doubt our number 1 geopolitical enemy”. At the time, his rival, Barack Obama, almost laughed in his face. Ten years later, the largest country in the world, often reduced in European chancelleries to its GDP “like that of Italy”, shows another form of power.
In the meantime, it has gained a new partner: China, which is watching the grim spectacle unfolding. This is Washington’s other challenge. Because “if Russia can act with impunity in Europe, China can also in Asia” fears in a recent note Raphaël Cohen, political analyst at the Rand Corporation. “There are many reasons why Taiwan is not Ukraine and our Asian allies are different from our European allies. But the fundamental point remains: if we sit down and allow authoritarian regimes to bully their smaller neighbors democratic nations to submit without repercussions, this will send a powerful signal to the rest of the world.”