India continues with agility its balancing act on the international scene. More than a year after the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, it is applying its new diplomatic principle of “multi-alignment”, developed by its Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Under the leadership of this brilliant career diplomat and able lieutenant to the Prime Minister, India is moving away from its tradition of non-alignment in favor of a vision of foreign policy entirely dictated by national interests. By Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s own admission, the South Asian giant’s multiple commitments with its “partners” are tied by “identifying and exploiting the opportunities created by global contradictions”. A strategy at the service of Indian power, and carried by the Hindu nationalism promoted by Modi.
In the context of the war in Ukraine, India has managed to maintain good relations with both sides. Historically close to Moscow, its main supplier of military equipment, in recent years it has deepened its partnership with the United States and Europe in the Indo-Pacific to counter the growing influence of China.
Despite Western pressure, New Delhi has never explicitly condemned Russian aggression, and has systematically refrained from voting resolutions to this effect at the United Nations. This did not prevent Narendra Modi from telling Russian President Vladimir Putin that “the hour [n’était] not to war”, in September 2022.
Russian oil at a discount
Thanks to this acrobatic strategy, New Delhi manages for the moment to pull out of the game. Taking advantage of the embargoes imposed on Moscow by the Europeans and the Americans, India, which depends 85% on imports to meet its black gold , buys Russian oil at a discount. Moscow is now India’s main supplier of crude oil, producing more than a quarter of its imports in January, compared with less than 1% before the war.
But if New Delhi, in a populist logic, concentrates on the advantages to be drawn from the situation, it is also part of the strategy of the Europeans: to harm the Russian receipts, which make it possible to finance the war, while avoiding a oil shock. “Indian refineries buy crude oil from Russia, then process it and resell it in Europe and America,” says Vibhuti Garg, South Asia director of the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. countries, even if they try to end the war, are indeed trying to meet the demand of their people.” India sent some 89,000 barrels a day of gasoline and diesel to the United States in January, a record in nearly four years, according to Kpler.
However, the South Asian giant is not immune to the economic consequences of the war. “Overall, the negative will outweigh the positive,” warns Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil. The prices of fertilizers, edible oil and raw materials have skyrocketed since the start of the conflict. Over the last twelve months, inflation has mostly been above 6%.
“India today stands out as one of the few countries that can still talk to both sides”
While its position of neutrality seemed untenable at the start of the war, India was able to navigate geopolitics skilfully, at the cost of a certain cynicism. “New Delhi has managed to carve out a unique place for itself in the international system and demonstrate its strategic autonomy and independence in decision-making,” said Harsh Pant, vice president of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank. .
At the meeting of G20 foreign ministers in New Delhi on March 2, several European diplomats praised India’s efforts to bring people together, as the war in Ukraine weighed on the whole discussions, preventing the publication of a joint press release. “India today appears to be one of the few countries that can still speak to both sides, and is perceived as impartial, unlike states like China,” said Harsh Pant. An asset for this country which dreams of having more influence on the international scene.