The war in Ukraine has welcomed an additional actor for a few weeks. Hint: five-letter paramilitary group. While Wagner occupies all the media attention, a new private militia is gaining visibility: Convoy. Its creator is none other Sergei Axionov, proclaimed head of the Republic of Crimea. “Local political figures fear that their security will not be ensured by the regular Russian forces, especially after the withdrawal of Kherson (Editor’s note: city in southern Ukraine)”, underlines to L’Express Carole Grimaud, geopolitical analyst, specialist in Russia and post-Soviet spaces.
Proof that this private military company (SMP) is getting in working order, recruitment announcements are available online. The resemblance to those of Wagner is striking. On Telegram, “Convoy” recruits mercenaries, former soldiers but also prisoners. “It’s the same model as Wagner,” adds the expert. For the moment, little information is circulating on this militia founded at the end of 2022. According to an investigation by the independent Russian media Important stories, the commander is Konstantin Pikalov. Nom de guerre: Mazai. In 2020, the Russian investigative site Bellingcat referred to him as Wagner’s “Mister Africa”.
On social networks, Vasily Yashchikov attracts more attention. In charge of Convoy’s communication, he shows up in most television topics and on Telegram. In 2018, the man cut his teeth at the head of the group “The First Hundred” which fought against anti-Putin protesters. “This type of Cossack bathes in the same bath as the ultranationalists who form the backbone of Wagner”, indicates Ulrich Bounat, analyst in international relations and author of Hybrid warfare in Ukraine, what prospects? (ed. of the Swan, 2016). On the operational side, the militia founded by Sergei Axionov has 300 fighters who operate in Crimea and southern Ukraine, particularly in the Kherson region, again according to Important stories.
In order to swell the ranks of Convoy, several advantages are brandished by recruiters, starting with the salary. Each fighter would earn around $2,500 per month. For those who serve for a year, there are added promises of land in Crimea or Abkhazia. Despite the resemblance in methods, Convoy remains however hardly comparable to Wagner. The paramilitary group led by Evgueni Prigojine has 50,000 personnel deployed in Ukraine. “Convoy will not be a major player. Behind his creation there is a desire to display. Sergueï Axionov sees the opportunity to show that he is acting for the defense of his territories, explains Ulrich Bounat, At the same time, l he Kremlin army can’t go everywhere, so some governors are tempted to take matters into their own hands.”
“The Kremlin likes to put entities in competition”
For its part, the British Ministry of Defense argues that “Convoy” would also serve another purpose. “Russia is arguably seeking to sponsor and develop alternative private military companies to eventually replace the Wagner SPM Group in its important offensive role in Ukraine,” reads the statement. his note of April 4. According to London, Russian military leaders would likely like a replacement private militia over which they have more control. In order to support his remarks, British intelligence points out the complicated relations between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Wagner group. “Within the Russian power, Prigojine is not in the odor of sanctity. The day when he will no longer be supported by Vladimir Poutine, the future of Wagner could be compromised”, comments Carole Grimaud.
Since Yevgueni Prigojine officially announced that he was at the head of the Wagner group at the end of September 2022, Wagner’s advances have been increasingly publicized and “Putin’s cook” does not hesitate to criticize the failures of the Russian army. . Something to make Moscow cringe. But will the Kremlin take the risk of weakening Prigozhin’s militia in Ukraine? Carole Grimaud rejects the British hypothesis: “Wagner is very useful to power as long as he does not cross the lines of politics. There is no question of getting rid of him.” Especially since the two bosses of the two militias, Sergei Axionov and Evgueni Prigojine, are reputed to be quite close. Another important element: both do not have the same forehead. Wagner is fighting in the East, in the Donbass, while Convoy acts in the South.
While they shouldn’t be rivals on the pitch, there’s no guarantee that Wagner and Convoy will cooperate hand in hand. “The Kremlin likes to put entities in competition, it’s its way of doing things on different subjects. The idea is to maximize the possibilities of results and to prevent a head from sticking out”, analyzes Ulrich Bounat. “Convoy” would thus have a double objective: to compensate for the shortcomings of the Russian army and to reduce the influence of Evgueni Prigojine. “The militias could also find themselves in competition in terms of resources, since they are both equipped by the Kremlin, in particular with military equipment”, underlines Ulrich Bounat.
“Privatization of War”
It is worth remembering that the Russian constitution still prohibits private military companies. “They are not truly private and independent of the state. If these militias are not new in Russia, we observe that the conflicts will be increasingly carried out by this type of structures all over the world. We can speak of a privatization of war”, observes Carole Grimaud. If the Russian executive relies on these paramilitary groups, it is because they make it possible to establish a distance between the conflict and the citizens. “The death of mercenaries may appear less shocking in the eyes of the population, which by tradition has always held the Russian army to a privileged position among the institutions. Thus, the death of a soldier has a much greater impact on the morale of Russians”, says the analyst.
These militias are not new and have existed for several years in Russia, but their use was trivialized during the conflict in Ukraine. Lurking in the shadows, the Wagner group has come into the light in recent months and no longer seems to need to hide. “The war gave them visibility. It would have been unimaginable before 2022 to see Prigojine expressing himself in the media, for the simple and good reason that his activity is illegal. The radicalization of the Kremlin, which has increased with the war in Ukraine, has meant that the most extreme groups have enjoyed greater visibility and acquired legitimacy”, concludes Ulrich Bounat. Wagner, Convoy, who’s next?