Two explosions, to make Putin back down, and put Belarusian President Lukashenko in trouble? On Sunday February 27, the dissident organization Bypol claimed responsibility for the attack on an air base and the destruction of a Moscow A-50 fighter plane, on Belarusian soil, before backpedaling, apparently the victim of poor internal feedback. Too late, intense media attention has focused on the dissident group, which seems to want to invite itself into the war in Ukraine.
This Thursday, Bypol notably published a video aimed at demonstrating that it, and its network, was able to reach such Belarusian infrastructures. But, the tone has changed, and now no damage is announced. We only see an aircraft landing on what looks like the Machulishchi air base, in Belarus. “Not so long ago, the dictator kept telling his propagandists that he had the best air and anti-drone defenses,” Bypol mocked.
If the mess could have damaged the reputation of the organization, founded on August 9, 2020, and made up of former police officers and the Ministry of the Interior, the sequence nevertheless seems to testify to the will of the organization to strengthen the armed part of its activities. Until now, these dissidents were best known for being whistleblowers. On YouTube, Bypol has over 18 million views.
A movement opposed to Lukashenko… And to Russia
Attack, or no attack, according to Bypol, the base would have been the subject of intensive reconnaissance for two weeks, by the “guerrillas” of the organization. Recurring intrusions, which would not have been reported to the “self-proclaimed leader”, proof of the incompetence and madness of the regime, according to these dissidents, while the country has been a rear base for the Kremlin, since the beginnings of the invasion of Ukraine.
Possible exchanges with Ukraine
“We don’t really know how these intrusions were orchestrated, or by whom. But, if they were to be confirmed, they would however demonstrate that Bypol now has the means to identify or locate Belarusian strategic weapons”, comments Samantha de Bendern, associate researcher at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), specialist in Ukraine, Russia, NATO and the EU.
The organization, now based in Warsaw, was born out of the resignation of Belarusian policeman Andrei Ostapovich and his flight to Poland in September 2020, the country in which he still resides. Under his influence, and that of Aliaksandr Azarau, co-founder and leader of the organization, Bypol first became a receptacle for protest, calling for the resignation of those involved in the repression. According to Bypol, some of its members are still in office within the regime itself.
Bypol also takes on the role of whistleblower, documenting the regime’s violence. Aliaksandr Azarau regularly shoots videos, “NGO” style or committed media, which he publishes on the association’s YouTube account, followed by 85,000 people and totaling more than 18,000,000 views. A website has also been created (Ekrp.org). It aims to demonstrate the falsification of the 2020 ballot, and evidence of human rights violations.
From whistleblowers… to activists?
The intrusions claimed by the organization mark a military turning point in this fight against Alexander Lukashenko, and the advent of a radical branch, wishing to attack the infrastructure of the regime, called “Peramoha”. “In view of the incident, it seems that they are providing support to Ukraine. Of what nature exactly? Anything that can weaken the regime is in their interest. It is above all against the Russians”, specifies Samantha of Bendern.
Officially launched in May 2021, “Peramoha” promotes armed combat, “in order to restore public order and defend the sovereignty and independence of Belarus”. A “clandestine people’s militia”, according to Bypol. The goal ? The “peaceful” transfer of power to the people, while “the enemy of the Belarusian people is inside the country”, implied Lukashenko, and Russian influence.
A training camp would even have been set up, according to communications from Bypol. Several photos of hooded men, in fatigues and bulletproof vests, practicing shooting with assault rifles were released by the organization. What destabilize Belarus, in its support for the war in Ukraine? “It would be especially interesting to know precisely the links of the organization with Ukraine. And what exact information they hold, and with whom they share it”, concludes the specialist.