To the almost endless list of Ukrainian localities bruised by the war has been added, in recent days, the name of Avdiivka, a town located south of Bakhmout, in the oblast of Donetsk. The vast majority of the 30,000 inhabitants who populated it before the invasion fled, and if it still remains Ukrainian, Moscow seems to have made it a circumstantial objective. “For more than six months, the Russians have been trying to take Bakhmout. Unable to do so, they are looking for nearby towns to conquer”, explains to L’Express General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN. The illustration of a conquest by nibbling, for lack of being able to do better.
Because if the capture of Avdiivka would allow the Russians to position themselves strategically south of Bakhmout, while opening the way to Donetsk, it shows, for General Trinquand, that “Russia is now only seeking to consolidate the borders of the regions annexed in September”, and to protect in particular the city of Donetsk, whose surroundings are not secure. The Russian idea is therefore to encircle Avdiivka, and to overcome it thanks to the power of their artillery. In this sense, the Russians have already conquered the surrounding hills, in order to gain height and be able to hit a fortified city since 2014. They also intend to cut the supply lines, a strategy used for weeks in Bakhmout, and which does not work. not as expected.
Fix Russian soldiers as long as possible
But the Ukrainians, now experienced in siege warfare, intend to resist, driven by a clearly defined mission, presented to us by General Trinquand: “to keep the Russian forces engaged on the spot, so that they cannot be redeployed elsewhere, and retain as much territory as possible before the launch of the major counter-offensive, which will take place when the weather situation permits”. The territories they will then conquer, combined with those they will have retained, could place them in a position of strength when the time for negotiations comes. This strategy seems, on the first point, to work since the adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, Mykhaïlo Podoliak, estimated that between 10,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers had died trying to conquer Bakhmout.
Less than the self-interest of its conservation or its loss, Avdiivka therefore symbolizes the turn taken by this war. An invader at a loss for ideas, ready to do anything to claim the slightest conquest, faced with a besieged country in the process of preparing a well-thought-out large-scale offensive, made possible by the massive and continuous aid of Western countries, and which could, perhaps dispel the thick fog of current uncertainties.