Can the Russians regain control of the war they are waging in Ukraine? At the start of 2023, Vladimir Putin is stepping up his attacks on the eastern front. Efforts that are starting to pay off. In mid-January, the city of Soledar was taken over by Moscow. Since then, the Kremlin has been grabbing small portions of territory. Even if it means causing a deluge of fire and sacrificing its own soldiers.
The city of Bakhmout is an example of this: Putin no longer counts the losses, he wants to obtain victories at all costs, according to General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense Review. If the Russian counter-offensive so feared by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has not really started, a race against time is underway before spring, warns the specialist.
L’Express: Soledar, and now Bakhmout on the edge of the abyss… How to explain the recent Russian advances in the Donbass?
Jerome Pellistrandi: This is one of the effects of the mobilization decreed in September. The mobilized personnel gradually arrive on the front, which makes it possible to modify the balance of power on the tactical level. But it’s snacking, there has been no decisive breakthrough. If the Russians conquered Soledar, they only recovered ruins. Russian advances are only very localized successes, for which they have paid dearly.
The Russians are trying to do as much damage as possible, considering they can make up for their own losses with mobilization. Vladimir Putin is in the same logic as Stalin during the Second World War. The human price does not matter to him, only the victory counts. Demography is also a military tool. And Putin knows he has plenty of men.
Some, including Volodymyr Zelensky himself, believe that the beginnings of a major massive Russian counter-offensive are unfolding before our eyes. Not your opinion?
The intensity of the fighting has been increased, but the Russians are progressing by one kilometer per week. At this rate, it would take 100 years of fighting to win the war. We cannot yet speak of a major counter-offensive. Above all, the Russians want to regain the initiative in the war and force the Ukrainians to suffer, to remain in a defensive position. Putin wants to cause a very strong attrition of the Ukrainian forces. A pattern similar to Verdun in 1916, where the French had resisted for a long time. The Germans had hoped that by inflicting very heavy casualties they would push back the French, who might have considered the price to be paid too high.
The city of Bakhmout does not have a great strategic interest, in reality. It is not a boulevard in kyiv, just as Verdun is not a boulevard in Paris. It is an important logistical axis, yes, but its loss would not be an irremediable setback on the ground. If they win the city, the Russians will not rush to Dnipro. Bakhmout has become a key by the strength of the symbol. It is the catalyst of Russian ambitions. Putin wants victories at all costs.
How far is the Ukrainian command ready to go to save this symbol? The Ukrainians will have tactical choices to make. Is it worth fighting stone by stone to defend a razed city? Or is it better to prepare a withdrawal? In other words, is withdrawing from Bakhmout, to preserve its numbers, worth it compared to the political impact of a defeat? It’s up to Volodymyr Zelensky to decide.
In the meantime, the Russian attacks are increasing in intensity…
A race against time is on. With Western aid, Ukrainian forces are gradually gaining strength. But even if arms transfers are accelerated, the means recently promised will not be available before the spring. The Russians therefore have every interest in counter-attacking quickly. What is most likely at first is that the intensity of the fighting will continue to increase in the coming weeks. Hence Volodymyr Zelensky’s repeated calls for more Western support.
Do the Ukrainian forces have the means to resist?
If the counter-offensive came before spring, it would be extremely difficult for the Ukrainian forces. They would fall permanently into a defensive position, like a year ago. Ukrainians could be greatly unbalanced by this backtracking. It would be tricky, but their resilience no longer needs to be proven.
What about an attack from Belarus?
This eventuality is first and foremost a strategic asset, a card that Putin keeps up his sleeve. This risk obliges Ukraine to maintain forces near the border to defend kyiv. These are forces that are not at the front. But an attack from this side would cost Putin dearly. As at the start of the war, it would be kyiv that would be targeted. And after a year of war, it is not possible for Ukraine to give up its capital…
However, this case cannot be ruled out. kyiv represents a real interest for Putin. It remains to be seen whether Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko would agree. For the moment, he tacks. But in the event of an attack, and a new Russian failure, he would be much more vulnerable than Putin to Ukrainian reprisals. And it would be the first to be dragged before the International Criminal Court.