Wagner’s rebellion: for Putin, the hour of the purges has come

Vladimir Putin has always been very clear on the matter: there is one thing unforgivable for him, betrayal. In this respect, the poisoning of former intelligence agents Alexander Litvinenko (who died in 2006 in London) and Sergei Skripal (in March 2018) had as much value as a sanction as an example. However for the Russian president, the mutiny of Wagner, on June 24, is indeed such an affront: “A betrayal caused by excessive ambitions and personal interests”, he had indicated the same day on television. And to warn that the rebels would be “inevitably punished”.

Less than a week after the abortive revolt of the mercenaries and their leader, Evgueni Prigojine, the hour of the purges could well have come in Russia, even if time will be necessary to disentangle the true from the false. His main ally in the army, Sergei Surovikin, was arrested, according to the New York Timesprovided by the American services, and the Moscow Timesan independent newspaper reporting on sources within the Russian Defense Ministry.

“After the humiliation that Putin suffered, the purges are inevitable, given his well-developed vindictiveness, explains historian Françoise Thom, a specialist in post-Soviet Russia. He will put aside all the officers of whom we can suspect that they sympathized with Prigozhin and there are many of them, starting with the highest ranks.”

Surovikin, a relative of Prigozhin

This is particularly the case of Sergei Surovikin, one of Vladimir Putin’s most eminent generals. At the head of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) since 2017, he commanded the “special operation” in Ukraine from October 2022 to January 2023, before officially handing over this responsibility to the Chief of Staff in person, Valeri Guerassimov , and becoming his deputy. Nicknamed “General Armageddon”, he had previously led the Russian intervention in Syria, where he earned a reputation as a butcher, due to the numerous airstrikes carried out by Russian planes on civilian targets.

General Surovikin had appeared on a video on June 24 to call for the return to their camps of the members of Wagner. However, he is reputed to be close to the group of mercenaries, with whom he collaborated directly in Syria. If his arrest is confirmed, he could thus pay for having maintained good relations with Prigojine, for having been aware of the coup in preparation or, worse in the eyes of Putin, for having played a role in it.

This would not be his first step in challenging the highest authorities. While a captain, he participated in the 1991 coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev – an event that precipitated Boris Yeltsin’s rise to power as Russian president and the end of the USSR. This episode also earned him several months of detention, three demonstrators having been killed by the soldiers under his command.

His arrest would suit the Ukrainians. “If that’s the case, it could be more destabilizing for the Russian military effort than the initial coup, especially if other associates of Prigozhin and Surovikin begin to be purged. Surovikin is a bully, but also the one of the most capable Russian commanders”, esteem in a tweet Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London. “Putin risks being torn between his desire for dazzling revenge and the need not to destabilize the army too much for the war in Ukraine”, adds Françoise Thom.

The deputy head of the Russian air force, Andrei Yudin, for his part, would have been sacked, indicates for his part the Russian journalist Alexei Venediktov. Will others follow? “The party grows stronger by purifying itself”, insisted Lenin well before taking power. Putin seems to want to apply this maxim to his regime, which is more fragile than ever.