As intense as it is fast-paced, the Wagner rebellion is the greatest challenge Vladimir Putin has faced since coming to power. But if it could surprise the population, this is not the case of the American agencies, which would have been informed of the project for a few days already. Pentagon spies reportedly caught wind of Wagner’s plan as early as “mid-June”, says the Washington Post.
The rebellion began on Friday evening. The boss of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner, Evgueni Prigojine, has announced that he wants to “liberate Russia”. After taking control of the Russian city of Rostov, accompanied by his 25,000 men, he launched a march on Moscow before recalling his troops on Saturday evening, accepting the principle of exile in Belarus. As early as June 21, two days before the rebellion, meetings were organized between American administration and defense officials, notes the New York Times. “There were enough clues to inform the hierarchy that something was wrong”, explains an anonymous source to the washington post. The White House, senior Pentagon and State Department officials would therefore have been made aware of Prigojine’s plans.
The United States, however, chose to remain silent. “American officials felt that if they said anything, Vladimir Putin could accuse them of having orchestrated a coup”, justifies the New York Times. “And they had very little interest in helping Vladimir Putin avoid a major and embarrassing rift with one of his supporters.” Before rising up against the Kremlin, Evgueni Prigojine was a protege of Putin, whom he has known for twenty years. He was both her cook and her man of low works.
A difficult escalation to predict
If the American agencies knew the strategy of Prigojine, it was only in broad outline. They didn’t know, for example, that he was going to storm Rostov. They were also surprised by the speed of the escalation. “It’s so hard to differentiate lip service from real decisions,” an anonymous source told CNN. “The tension has been building for so long with nothing actually happening.”
It is true that for months Wagner has been in open conflict with the Russian general staff. He accuses him of not providing enough ammunition to the soldiers to fight the war in Ukraine. Evgueni Prigojine regularly posts messages on Telegram to attack Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense, and Valéri Guérassimov, Chief of Staff, whom he accuses of having sacrificed thousands of lives. According to American officials, the lack of means does not only affect Wagner. The Russian armed forces are also concerned. The shortage of supplies has become all the more evident since the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive…
An order from the Russian Ministry of Defense would have added fuel to the fire, according to American media. Volunteer secondments will now have to sign contracts with the Kremlin. For Wagner, this means coming under the control of the Russian army, and therefore under that of Sergei Shoigu. This decision acted as a “trigger” for Prigojine, pushing him to launch his rebellion, according to American agencies.
THE washington post finally reveals that Vladimir Putin himself knew about the mutiny. He would have heard about it about twenty-four hours before. It remains unclear why he did not attempt to thwart Prigozhin’s actions, either the capture of Rostov or the march to Moscow. At present, Russia is trying to show a return to normal. Draconian security measures introduced during the rebellion have been lifted. Sergei Choïgou, who had vanished, reappeared on television on June 26. Evgueni Prigojine has not given any sign of life since the announcement of his exile in Belarus, which he has not confirmed. And there is also total uncertainty about the whereabouts of Wagner’s 25,000 men.