Putin or Prigozhin? Prigozhin or Putin? Since the aborted insurrection of the boss of Wagner, on June 24, a question has been nagging African leaders in business with these paramilitaries: what number should they now dial to ensure their backs?
The authorities of the Central African Republic, Wagner’s laboratory on the continent, waited forty-eight hours to speak…”[Bangui] signed a defense agreement with the Russian Federation and not with Wagner”, declared to AFP Fidèle Gouandjika, the minister special adviser to President Touadéra. And to add: “Russia has subcontracted with Wagner, if Russia no longer agrees with Wagner, so they will send us a new contingent.” Child’s play, in short. Except that Wagner is much more than a group of highly paid militiamen – and guilty of abuses against local populations, documented by the UN and several international organizations.
Having become the armed arm of Russian foreign policy in Africa, Wagner has woven its web in a dozen countries thanks to a galaxy of companies articulated around a triptych: security, economic predation (gold mines, diamonds, wood …) and disinformation. At the helm of this empire, a man: Evguéni Prigojine, former faithful of Vladimir Putin, sent to Belarus at the end of the mysterious “agreement” which put an end to his crazy expedition.
Wagner, deputy of the Russian state in Africa
Will his multinational survive his exile? “The Kremlin will certainly want to regain control, predicts Alessandro Arduino, a professor at King’s College London, specializing in the activity of private military companies. Wagner is more valuable to Moscow in Africa and the Middle East than in Ukraine, no only because the company brews a lot of money, but above all because it plays a geopolitical role as a substitute for the Russian state.
At stake is the control of resources such as gold, the looting of which – particularly in Sudan – feeds the Russian war machine in Ukraine. In a July 2022 investigation, the American channel CNN identified at least 16 smuggling flights of Russian gold from Sudan, Africa’s third largest producer of the precious metal, since the beginning of 2021. Thanks to Wagner, the Kremlin has also regained influence in the region by ousting its rivals with cartoons and propaganda campaigns casting opprobrium on the Western presence.
The first statements by the authorities suggest that Moscow does not intend to give up these dividends. On June 26, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov assured that Wagner members present in Mali and the Central African Republic as “instructors” would continue to operate. The next day, Vladimir Putin asserted for the first time that the Russian state had “completely financed” Wagner… A barely roundabout way of saying that the group has always had only one “boss”: Putin.
A takeover of the Kremlin?
“The most likely scenario is the takeover of Wagner directly by the Russian authorities, resumes Alessandro Arduino. He has some assets to achieve this: soldiers from the regular army are still present in Africa and diplomatic contacts are established there. Also, Wagner’s men in Africa have a different profile than those operating in Ukraine, often former special forces or intelligence personnel, who still have a connection to the military in some way. or another and can be contacted.” Wagner’s client states will probably find nothing wrong with it. “To tell the truth, they no longer really have a choice, points out the researcher. The Central African Republic and Mali have driven out the French army, and Bamako has just demanded the departure without delay of the UN force Minusma.”
However, two other hypotheses cannot be ruled out, according to Alessandro Arduino: the first would be the relocation of Evguéni Prigojine to Africa to continue to lead his “orchestra” (Wagner’s nickname). The day before and the very day of the mutiny, several suspicious thefts were identified. “Air traffic data indicates more frequent movements of Russian planes than usual between Russia, Syria and Mali since June 23, but we do not know the details of passengers and cargoes”, underlines an investigator within the collective All Eyes on Wagner, which documents the activities of the group. Difficult for the moment to assess the ambitions of Prigojine, no more than his ability to maintain control. “If he is stripped of his militia and his contracts with the Defense Ministry, he will become insignificant,” said Maxim Trudolyubov, editor-in-chief of the ideas section of the independent Russian-language media Meduza.
Last possibility, the least likely, but also the most frightening: if neither Putin nor Prigojine – who have both lost legitimacy – manage to “hold” Wagner, the paramilitaries deployed from Syria to Sudan could jump ship and offer their services to the highest bidder. “It would be the worst scenario, explains Alessandro Arduino, because we would have heavily armed and seasoned men scattered in several African countries, ready to do anything to get rich.” In the purest tradition of mercenaries.