The Azerbaijanis go to the polls this Wednesday, February 7, for an early presidential election without much suspense, and for good reason: the re-election of the outgoing leader, Ilham Aliev, seems assured. Very popular since the victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, Ilham Aliev, in power for more than twenty years, also left no chance to the opposition which preferred to boycott the vote.
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The vote was to take place in 2025, but Ilham Aliev chose to rush the vote, undoubtedly wanting to take advantage of the momentum given by the military victory over Armenia. A victory which allowed Azerbaijan to recover Nagorno-Karabakh and wash away the affront suffered more than thirty years ago, in the wake of the Soviet collapse.
Ultra popular, the Azerbaijani president takes very few risks in appearing before the voters anyway.
Human rights NGOs are unanimous: Azerbaijan is one of the most repressive countries in Europe and, in recent months, a new turn of the screw has been given, with a series of arrests in the ranks of the opposition and among the country’s few independent media.
In this context, the opposition prefers to boycott an election that it considers a foregone conclusion, and it is therefore little-known candidates who are running against the outgoing president. In the previous election, Ilham Aliev received 86% of the votes. A score that the Azerbaijani president, in power since 2003, could still surpass at the end of this new election.
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The importance of Azerbaijani gas in Europe
Azerbaijan is a major producer of gas useful to Europe. Especially since Baku intends to double its exports to the old continent which wants to turn away from Russian gas by 2027.
Azerbaijan is now the fifth largest exporter of natural gas to the EU. This is certainly not huge, but it is essential, as Catherine Locatelli, a CNRS researcher and energy specialist, explains:
“ Azerbaijan does not have a very large weight in European gas imports since roughly out of a little more than 300 billion imported by Europe, Azerbaijan represents around 20 billion cubic meters, so it is not is not a huge volume, but it is still something significant “.
20 billion cubic meters per year is the European Union’s objective by 2027, which corresponds to 3.5% of total natural gas consumption on the continent. This is what Catherine Locatelli recalls:
“ It is not essential in itself, but it is important, especially since Azerbaijan could increase its gas deliveries a little more. So in times of supply tension, all countries are important. »
However, Azerbaijani gas alone will not replace Russian gas. Because before the war in Ukraine, it accounted for around 45% of European imports.