“Glide bombs on Sumy”; “Democrats lose Georgia”; “sending missiles from Kursk”; “Trump wins Pennsylvania”: the night of November 5 was agitated for the Ukrainians, as the newspapers recounted the Russian bombings and the states won by Donald Trump, a closely linked dual reality. Because in the corridors of Bankova – the “Ukrainian White House” – people have been preparing for a long time for a change of presidency in the United States. Volodymyr Zelensky was also quick to congratulate the future president of the United States, Ukraine’s first ally with 175 billion dollars paid since 2022.
“Donald Trump can, in a truly unpredictable way, give us everything we need if we agree to negotiate. He can also interrupt deliveries if he suddenly forgets where we are,” analyzes Oleksandr Kraïev, director of the North America program at the “Ukrainian Prism” think tank, in kyiv. On multiple occasions, Donald Trump has repeated that he would end the war “in 24 hours”, in particular by pushing kyiv to cede territories occupied by Russia since 2014. Although he did not give the details of his plan, two former advisers, however, proposed stopping military aid if Ukraine did not agree to lead peace negotiations. His supporters in Congress have already succeeded in blocking a $61 billion aid package from October 2023 to April 2024.
Phlegm on all levels
However, in kyiv, in the corridors of the ministries and the presidency, we remain phlegmatic. “Regardless of who is president, the United States understands what kind of war this is, why partner support for Ukraine is important and why it is a question of survival for the Ukrainian state,” explains to L’Express Mykhaïlo Podoliak, its spokesperson. “For the moment, we do not take seriously everything that Donald Trump has declared, because his goal was above all to be elected. We know that his decisions will certainly be different from what he announced,” breathes another advisor by Volodymyr Zelensky. After all, it was under Trump’s presidency, from 2017 to 2021, and even though he was close to Moscow at the time, that the United States began supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine (anti-tank missiles Javelin) and that they killed Russian mercenaries in Syria.
One thing is certain, Donald Trump is counting on the opening of negotiations with the Russians and on this point, kyiv wants to show itself to be a good student. Volodymyr Zelensky had thus presented his arguments in advance to the two candidates with his plan for victory. “Our task is to ensure that the establishment American remembers his statements that their main goal is a strong position in the negotiations, whatever they may be,” warns Oleksandr Krayev.
Trump doesn’t want a war of attrition
“With Donald Trump, we will have many more risks, but also many more chances and opportunities,” said Pavlo Klimkin, former Minister of Foreign Affairs. “Donald Trump is not in favor of a long-term process […]. A large part of the Republicans, including him, are not ready to pay for a war of attrition,” notes the diplomat. The plan of his advisers presented in June also specifies that if Russia does not want to sit down at the negotiating table, the new tenant of the White House will increase military aid.
There is no shortage of arguments from kyiv to tilt the balance in favor of Ukraine. Internationally, the increasingly significant involvement of North Korea and Iran, suppliers of men and weapons to Moscow and long-time enemies of Donald Trump, could push him to take the side from kyiv, in a show of force. The latter has also repeatedly repeated that he wants to distance Russia from China, one of its main suppliers of components for its weapons. On the domestic front, the American defense complex has benefited from more than $50 billion in investment, particularly in states which are Donald Trump’s preferred territories such as Arkansas, Alabama and Florida. The local economy would take a hit if weapons production for Ukraine stopped.
But be careful not to place too much trust in Donald Trump, who has a transactional vision of international relations. In 2019, he blackmailed Volodymyr Zelensky by asking him to open an investigation into Joe Biden’s son who had business in Ukraine. Also watch out for certain members of his entourage, who only want the good of Ukrainians. Volodymyr Fessenko, Ukrainian political scientist, is concerned about “the presence of people with anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian opinions in the immediate environment” of Donald Trump, in particular his son Donald Trump Jr. “As evidenced by his famous speech, in which he mentions that Ukraine no longer exists, millions of dead, thousand-year-old cities with golden domes, an army of which only children and old people remain. Someone has poured all this nonsense into the. ears of Donald Trump”, explains the political scientist.
Race against time
While waiting for his arrival at the White House, the Russians could launch missiles this winter that they have been saving for months, warns military expert Mykhaïlo Samous. “Right now, Joe Biden’s help is simply vital. We need a billion dollars every week,” he continues. Only 10% of the military aid allocated in July has been delivered.
The Ukrainians hope to take advantage of Joe Biden’s last months in power to score points. “We can receive long-range weapons and F-16s to stop Russian gliding bombs,” adds Mykhaïlo Samous. “And, of course, authorization to strike Russian territory.” The race against time is on.
.