The Russian bombardment on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, on November 21, before dawn, contrasts with those of recent weeks. For the first time since the start of the conflict, Russia has “tested” an intermediate-range ballistic missile. This type of vector, supposedly unstoppable for anti-aircraft defenses, is specifically designed to carry atomic charges. To avoid any misunderstanding, Moscow therefore warned Washington, half an hour before, that the shot that the West was preparing to detect would not be nuclear, but conventional.
A thousand days after his troops invaded Ukraine, the Russian president decided to increase the threat by forcefully waving his red nuclear rag. The firing of the 21st, as a strategic signal, is intended to be an expression of its determination to use, if necessary, all the means at its disposal. It follows – and this is no coincidence – the signing, two days earlier, of a presidential decree establishing the new Russian nuclear doctrine, with several changes compared to the previous one, which dated back to 2020.
A dangerous rhetorical escalation
As criteria for use, the Kremlin cites attacks on its territorial integrity and no longer just a threat against the very existence of the Russian state. Other new features: the extension of this principle to its ally, Belarus, host of Russian nuclear weapons on its soil; and the fact of writing, in black and white, that it will be able to use atomic weapons against a non-nuclear State attacking Russia and benefiting from the support of States possessing atomic weapons. Or a country like Ukraine, which must guard itself, in the future, from any new adventurism on Russian territory, such as in the Kursk region.
This dangerous rhetorical escalation has several objectives. It obviously aims to shatter any hope of reconquest of all or part of its territories currently lost by kyiv, while there is more and more talk of peace negotiations. It is also about reducing the support of Europeans and Americans for the Ukrainians. Putin seeks to play on the psychology of Western decision-makers by instilling in them the fear of an escalation more rapid than they imagined towards the use of Russian atomic weapons. Between the Westerners and him, the war of nerves has escalated a notch.