“Vladimir Putin’s regime is playing down the card of the private militia”

The spread of the video showing Yevgeny Prigogine recruiting prisoners would aim to show that the Kremlin has not yet played all its cards at a time when, strategically, it is in difficulty in Ukraine. Interview with Lukas Aubin, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, author of The Geopolitics of Russia (La Découverte editions).

RFI: This is a surprising video in which Evgueni appears Prigozhin. What should we think ?

Lucas Aubin: This video is very interesting on several levels. There is obviously the timing: it comes at a time when the Russian army is retreating, when the Russian army is in extreme difficulty and when Vladimir Putin is looking for solutions. Second point, Evgueni Prigojine had until now never declared publicly that he was part of the private Russian Wagner militia. This is the first time he mentions it. On top of that, he is a personality who appears very little in the Russian media and very little in the media in general.

However, we have known for several years, in the world of research and that of journalism, that this man is extremely influential. He is nicknamed “the cook” of Vladimir Putin, but he is above all a man who uses his aura to influence external powers thanks to his militia. We have seen this particularly on the African continent, in the Central African Republic and in Mali for example, where it is precisely seeking to curry favor with local authorities to the detriment of French influence, for example.

Then there is the fact that he harangues Russian prisoners for a good five minutes in a penitentiary center of the Republic of Maris in Russia – at least that is what the video shows. He explains the current stakes of the war, the harshness of it and offers them a deal: “ If you want to get out of prison now, you can, in exchange for which you have to give six months of your time to help the war effort on the Ukrainian front “. What he is basically telling them is that if they survive six months of war in Ukraine, then they will be free. This is the obviously very important third point of this video: his Wagner militia is currently recruiting prisoners in Russia to make them fight in Ukraine.

And if you desert, we execute you?

There is also indeed an element that is very important, it is the martial, chilling, even dramatic element. This refers directly to the Second World War. Joseph Stalin was already doing this, namely that deserters, those who arrived at the front and who finally got scared and left, were shot. Yevgeny Prigozhin mentions it at the end of the video, when he says: “ deserters will be executed if they change their minds on the ground “.

Is this leak intentional? Is it a communication strategy?

At the moment, it is obviously difficult to say exactly what the objectives of this video are. We can only guess. There is the question of timing and the fact that the Russian army is having great difficulty on the ground, but also that Vladimir Putin, as we know, is extremely unhappy with the way his special military operation is going. We have the feeling that this very impressive video is there precisely to show that Russian power has not yet played all its cards and that it still has others to play. In this case, that of the private militia. Which is all the more interesting, because in Russia private militias are prohibited.

Russia still claimed at the start of the week that it was not recruiting in prison. What should we conclude from Wagner’s role in Ukraine?

Wagner was already present in Ukraine, but risks being even more so from now on because the Russian army is retreating. It’s a safe bet that it is also a form of emergency, because the Russian army needs to consolidate its positions, at the risk of being completely expelled from Ukrainian territory. Apart from Crimea, of course. But when we see the speed of the Ukrainian counter-offensives and their effectiveness, we understand the urgency of the opposition. This explains in particular this “coming out” of Evgueni Prigojine in front of everyone.

It is obviously voluntary to finally say who he is, namely the man who manages the private Wagner militia. This makes this video very amazing. Since the beginning of this war, we have lived through such an impressive number of events that, ultimately, we are in the continuity of that: we are going from surprise to surprise and the Russian regime never ceases to surprise us.

It could be that Wagner is at the origin of the Boutcha massacres, which would mean a presence from February/March on Ukrainian territory.

Of course, but just like the Chechen forces of Ramzan Kadyrov were also present. All this is not new and it shows that we are above all on an announcement effect. Because we already knew that the Russian forces were recruiting in the prisons. Investigations have been carried out into the matter since the beginning of the war. We knew that Wagner’s militia had been present on the ground since the start of the war as well. This video contributes to intensifying the psychological war waged by Vladimir Putin who obviously seeks to impress the Ukrainian power and more broadly the Western powers.

He did the same recently by waging a form of energy war, threatening to cut off gas and oil to European powers. We are in an image war. Vladimir Putin has lost it since the start of the conflict and he is now seeking to win.