Soon three years. Three years that the Army of the Kremlin army invaded Ukraine in the middle of the night on February 24, 2022. Around 4 am, Vladimir Putin announced the start of a military operation to “defend the separatists in the east of the country “, calling on the Ukrainian soldiers to” lay down their arms “. A few hours later, explosions resounded in the country. Since then, hopes of peace have continued to move away … until Tuesday, February 4, 2025.
Questioned by British presenter Piers Morgan on the possibility of negotiating with his Russian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky replied that he would do it “if it is the only configuration in which we can bring peace to the citizens of Ukraine and no longer lose people “. If the Ukrainian president “wants to participate in negotiations”, he wishes, among other things, “to choose the people” who will lead them. The European Union, the United States, as well as the main interested parties, Ukraine and Russia, would thus be invited to the negotiating table. Only downside: for General Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor -in -chief of the review National defensethe master of the Kremlin will only sit at this table only one condition: the capitulation of his enemy.
L’Express: Volodymyr Zelensky has long refused talks with Vladimir Putin. In October 2022, he even prohibited any negotiation by decree until his Russian counterpart is in power. How to explain such a turnaround today?
Jérôme Pellistrandi: He has no choice. Volodymyr Zelensky knows that his people are exhausted after three years of war. He must find a diplomatic solution and fears that it will be done above Ukraine, that is to say, in a dialogue between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Can we consider this as an admission of weakness by the Ukrainian president or a pragmatic adaptation to the current situation?
Rather a pragmatic adaptation. Volodymyr Zelensky knows that it is necessary to start negotiations because Ukraine cannot hold indefinitely. By adding, of course, American uncertainty. It is also important, for us, Europeans, to be present at the table to avoid sharing the cake between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. It would be very worrying if we were not present in the negotiations. Hence the pragmatism of Volodymyr Zelensky. It is essential and recalls that talks must be carried out on four: between Ukraine, Russia, the European Union and the United States. In a way, the Ukrainian President puts Vladimir Putin in the door in front of it since the latter considers him illegitimate. A photo of the two leaders around the table would be humiliating for the master of the Kremlin. He wants to be on an equal footing with Donald Trump. This is the obsession of Vladimir Putin.
Did Donald Trump return to the White House motivated Ukraine to want to negotiate?
Yes, but even if Kamala Harris had won the American election, the balance of power would have remained in favor of Russia. That is to say that even if American aid continued, Ukraine would, in any case, be able to recover the occupied territories.
The Kremlin requires concessions from Ukraine. Is there a realistic space for a compromise between the two parties?
This is the whole difficulty. Vladimir Putin only talks about the concessions that Ukraine must make, and never what Russia could accept. On the side of Moscow, the prerequisite for possible negotiations is that Volodymyr Zelensky claims that it has lost the war. Which is not the case. Vladimir Putin absolutely wants victory. Especially since there is going to be the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. He wants to take revenge, appear as the one who won war and who gives Russia its greatness.
Ukraine could accept a kind of frost, saying that the territories under Russian occupation are a frozen border, but it will not accept a defeat. Since even if she is on the defensive, which she regularly loses ground, she has not lost war. There is not the decisive breakthrough of Vladimir Putin. It is snacking meter square per square meter, which has no sense on the military level since it can last. In addition, if it accepted that the 20 % of territories occupied by Russia are under Russian control, this would generate a real diplomatic earthquake since this would mean that we can reconquer territories by force.
In the current context, does Ukraine really have the means to initiate discussions on an equal footing with Russia?
In any case, this is what Volodymyr Zelensky considers. Vladimir Putin does not consider being on an equal footing and wants his only interlocutor to be Donald Trump. He wants an exclusively bilateral dialogue which would impose a number of constraints on Ukraine. This is the reason why, by saying that it is ready to negotiate, Zelensky reveals the roles and shows that it is now Russia that must meet expectations. In a way, if Putin is not ready to accept a compromise, he will be, in the eyes of public, Ukrainian and international opinion, which will have refused to put an end to this war.
Is Ukrainian public opinion ready to accept concessions after three years of war and immense sacrifices?
Yes. Provided you have a security guarantee. I will take a very concrete example. You have a large property that you can no longer maintain, you give a game. The counterpart is that you can save the rest. This is the market, in a way. But Russia is not ready to accept the presence of Western and European forces in Ukraine to preserve 80 % of the remaining territory and dissuade any new attack. We are in a form of strategic impasse since Vladimir Putin is not in a logic of negotiation with mutual concessions, but in a logic of capitulation of Volodymyr Zelensky. If I have to give up 20 % of the territory, to reduce my army to 80,000 men, that I have no real security guarantee apart from a few observers on the front line, there, Ukraine would have lost. In this case, it was all of Europe that would have lost to Vladimir Putin.
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