The escalation between Israel and Iran has already created a winner without even taking part in the conflict: Vladimir Putin. 3,700 kilometers from the Jewish state, comfortably installed in his luxurious dacha of Novo-Ogaryovo, in the affluent suburbs of Moscow, the Russian president is probably delighted by the rise in tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran, which presents the advantage of diverting attention from the Ukrainian theater of war.
While chancelleries around the world hold their breath observing events in the Near and Middle East, the Russian army continues to strike Ukraine, while deliveries of Western arms and ammunition to kyiv are delayed.
“Strategically, Moscow has every interest in opening ‘secondary fronts’, believes Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, of the Thomas-More Institute. These lead the United States and its main allies to disperse their attention and energy political, but also to reallocate their diplomatic efforts and their military resources.”
Anti-Western narrative
The crisis fuels criticism of Russia over the West’s inability to maintain peace in the Middle East. The Russian Foreign Ministry “calls on the belligerents to exercise restraint”. And distributes good and bad points. After the Iranian attack on April 14, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations said that “the Iranian measures were a response to the shameful inaction of the UN and the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus [NDLR : du 1er avril]”. A clever way of expressing solidarity with the Tehran regime, a valuable ally which supplies the Russian army with Shahed-136 drones used against Ukraine. Two weeks earlier, Moscow had already pleaded to the Security Council of UN call for condemnation of the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus – a demand rejected by Israel’s allies.
In the Kremlin, we like to evoke the Western “parade of hypocrisy” and denounce the “double standards” of the United Nations – a refrain already heard after the October 7 attack against Israel and the IDF’s response to Gaza. “Thanks to the crisis, Russia has a new opportunity to spread its anti-Western narrative,” explains Anna Borshchevskaya, an expert at the Washington Institute, in the American capital. “For the moment, she is winning.”
Calculated support for the “axis of resistance”
In the immediate future, Moscow continues to support the “axis of resistance”, the political-military alliance between Iran, Syria and the pro-Iran armed militias. In October, a Hamas delegation was also welcomed in Moscow at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And, under the unofficial supervision of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Wagner Group mercenaries have known links with Hezbollah. But Moscow remains cautious and calculating. We should not expect unlimited support in the event of a violent Israeli response to Iran. “Russia is careful not to divert its military resources in order to keep them in Ukraine,” continues Anna Borshchevskaya. “This is why it fears an explosion of conflict at the regional level.”
In the great – and complex – diplomatic game, Moscow must also protect its relations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Arab states which consider Iran as a danger,” said Pavel Baev, professor at the Oslo Peace Research Institute Vladimir Putin’s other concern concerns the possible emergency release of funds for Israel by the American Congress. “With the escalation of the conflict with Iran, the Americans could judge. necessary to urgently allocate financial aid to Israel, which would also involve paying the aid package to Ukraine”, adds Baev. At stake: 60 billion dollars for Kiev, a sum which could allow the Ukrainians to hold their lines of defense. Putin knows it well: the Ukrainian war and the Israeli-Iranian crisis are closely linked.
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