He promised that he would not “stop” Evgueni Prigojine, the boss of the Wagner group, when he has just arrived in Belarus. A few days ago, no one would have predicted that Alexander Lukashenko, the president of this former Soviet republic, now virtually annexed to Russia, would play such an important role in Russian domestic politics. And yet, as Prigozhin and his men marched on Moscow, Lukashenko reportedly offered, under still unclear terms, to welcome Wagner’s boss and his soldiers.
According to Vitali Shkliarov, Belarusian opponent in exile, and former political prisoner, the president seized this opportunity to play a major political card. From now on, Putin is indebted to him, which allows Lukashenko to rebalance his relationship with the Russian regime, on which he is highly dependent.
L’Express: Are you surprised at the role played by Alexander Lukashenko in this crisis?
Vitaly Shkliarov: First of all, we must be careful not to overestimate its role and the terms used by propaganda, because it is indeed propaganda. Lukashenko is very smart… in a bad way: he knows what he wants, which is to stay in power. For this, he would use any kind of lies and manipulations to sell to the world that he plays the role of “godfather” of politics and that without him Putin would not stay in power. Finally, Lukashenko knows Prigojine personally, the latter has visited Belarus several times, and that is also why, I believe, he volunteered to speak to him.
For Lukashenko, this is a political opportunity to score points, to make Putin like him. But if Putin falls, Lukashenko also disappears. In the event of protests in Minsk, there will be no one, as in 2020, to send troops to Belarus.
What could be behind the agreement between Prigozhin and Lukashenko?
I don’t think there is an agreement as such. In my opinion, Lukashenko could have intervened by saying: “Listen, Evgeny, you are ‘finished’ in Russia, I offer you to come to Belarus, it is my country, I am in control. Bring your soldiers and be useful to me”, because he knows that his army is not functional, nor loyal, as we have seen during the events of 2020. Prigozhin is a kind of life insurance for Lukashenko.
Is Prigozhin safe in Belarus?
No. This country is heavily infiltrated by Russian intelligence agencies. And if there is a call from the Kremlin to extradite him, Belarus will serve Prigogine on a plate, so dependent is it on Russian money. We have to understand that Lukashenko is a dictator, worse than Putin. In recent years, he has arrested nearly 40,000 people, or 2% of the population… Finally, it is not because Prigogine is welcomed in Belarus that he is going to live there… He can very well go to Africa, where he has many interests.
Is the Lukashenko-Prigozhin tandem dangerous for Putin?
Yes. Lukashenko is experienced, and I don’t think he sided with Putin. He realized that the only security for power is military force. So in that sense, between his friend Prigozhin and his friend Putin, he obviously chooses Prigozhin. In his “old school” mentality, Prigojine is a real hero, whose audacity he admires.
Can Belarus really get involved in the conflict in Ukraine, by sending troops?
It’s already the case. Allow me to recall that Belarus was a launching pad in the first months for the Russian forces. Besides, there is no evidence that Belarus is not yet involved, as most soldiers don’t have passports… Lukashenko realized that even a big country like Russia, with a massive army, doesn’t is not immune to an attempt at destabilization. Therefore, he risks becoming even more involved in the war in Ukraine. Belarus is just a small country with practically no army. From the Ukrainian border it is only 300 kilometers to Minsk. A few thousand Ukrainian soldiers would be enough to bring down the regime, knowing that no one wants to die for Lukashenko…
When Prigozhin and his soldiers started marching to Moscow, many Telegram channels were calling for an uprising against Lukashenko as well. Could the Belarusian opposition have seized this chance?
I think so. There were a lot of announcements, Battalion General Kalinowski spoke, but in my opinion they waited too long, when there was a wonderful opportunity. And even if they hadn’t succeeded, it could have given the feeling that things can change in this country. Admittedly, there were speeches by Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa, other opponents, but nothing really came of it… These figures inspire people. But an opportunity to be more aggressive and more active has presented itself. Damage.
At the same time, the situation for the Belarusian opposition is increasingly complicated…
When I was imprisoned, I was one of the first victims of mass imprisonment. People are being arrested daily, the independent media no longer exist in the country at all, they are all in exile. No one has been pardoned except traitors who cooperated with the regime. In this sense, nothing changes: it’s just worse.