“Very possible,” says Rozbeh Parsi about reports of an imminent Iranian attack

Iran will attack Israel within three days, according to CNN.

Middle East expert Rouzbeh Parsi says:

– It is very possible that something is in the works right now. But it can also be nothing.

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After Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniya inside Iran on July 31, the Iranians have promised revenge.

Twelve days have passed without an attack, but this weekend stated American CNN political analyst Barak Ravid that the Israeli security service assumes that Iran is planning an attack “within a few days, even before the hostage negotiations on August 15”.

During Sunday, US Defense Minister Lloyd Austin therefore decided to urgently send the missile submarine USS Georgia to the Middle East, as Israel anticipates “immediate direct retaliation” from Iran, writes The Washington Post.

An Israeli official with access to information told the newspaper on Monday that Israel’s new assessments show that Iran has decided to attack Israel directly in response to Haniya’s murder. Israel has previously considered a number of different scenarios, including one in which Hezbollah attacks first and is joined by Iran afterwards.

Middle East expert Rouzbeh Parsi at the Foreign Policy Institute says:

– My assessment is that many will speculate about this until it actually takes place. It is very possible that something is going on right now, that the level of Iranian military activity is different from last week for example. But it can also be nothing.

Today Monday falls on the Jewish holiday of mourning Tisha Beav. Is it timely for Iran to strike on such a day?

– There has been speculation about this particular day since before. Personally, I would think, and it is really just pure speculation, that the negotiation meeting that will take place on 15 August is more important politically.

What reason would there be to attack before the negotiations on Wednesday?

– There is a “risk” – if you put it that way – that those negotiations could pave the way for a cease-fire. And then it would be politically more difficult for Iran to justify a retaliatory attack. On the other hand, it must also be remembered that Hamas, but above all Netanyahu, used these negotiations as a pawn in the game. Netanyahu has always come up with new negotiation demands as soon as it seems that an agreement is on the way.

How certain is it that there will be any negotiations on August 15?

– Egypt and Qatar have been the ones who handled much of the negotiations between the parties. Together with the United States, they have called for this meeting. But parts of the Israeli government have explicitly said they do not want Netanyahu to participate in these negotiations. And he doesn’t really want that himself. An agreement means that the question of responsibility for 7 October is back on the table and at the same time that his government risks imploding. Hamas, for its part, has said it will not participate either because the Israelis have just killed their chief negotiator.

When Iran attacked Israel with over 300 attack drones and robots on April 13, twelve days had passed after Israel’s attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. Today, the same amount of time has passed since Hamas chief negotiator Ismael Haniya was murdered in Iran on July 31.

– That time the Iranians announced the attack several days in advance and started with the slowest they had. This time, the Iranians’ priority is to hurt, because Israel has killed Haniya on Iranian territory. But at the same time, they need to cause damage without Israel feeling compelled to respond in turn with something spectacular. Tehran must also coordinate with Hezbollah so that the attack actually succeeds in breaking through Israeli air defenses. And at the same time hope that it won’t be so big that Netanyahu feels compelled to give back.

Is there any contact between Israel and Iran?

– Not between Israel and Iran, I find it very difficult to imagine that. However, we know that the Americans and the Iranians sometimes even talk directly, but above all they have proxies. They talk via Oman and Qatar, sometimes Kuwait has also been involved. What makes them somehow understand each other is that neither the Americans nor the Iranians want a major war.

How is the situation affected by the attack last Saturday against a school in Gaza where over 100 people are said to have died?

– It plays into the Iranians’ hands because it reinforces the basic image that the conflict is about Palestine. That is to say, the Israelis proceed extremely brutally in order to be able to maintain the occupation at any cost, regardless of how many civilians are killed. The Americans hold their backs, the Europeans wash their hands and so it goes on to the next massive bombing attack with many civilian casualties.

In April, the US, Israel and its allies managed to shoot down basically all Iranian rockets. Will it succeed this time too?

– It is likely that there will be much more from Hezbollah in Lebanon this time. It will have a greater chance of getting through the Israeli air defenses, because the flight distance is much shorter from there, thus giving the Israelis less time to react, says Rouzbeh Parsi.

After Hamas’ terrorist attack from Gaza against Israel on October 7 last year, the contradictions have steadily increased between Israel on the one hand and Hamas and its allies Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon on the other. The risk is now that a major war could start in the region if Iran’s upcoming retaliation against Israel becomes unusually strong.