MACRON CHINA. Emmanuel Macron flies to China on Wednesday March 5, 2023, for a three-day state visit. What should we expect from this move?
“Concrete? No.” The displacement ofEmmanuel Macron in China, from this Wednesday, April 5, 2023, should not upset the current geopolitical balance. The President of the Republic, who is visiting the country until April 8, does not seem able to return to France with concrete progress on several subjects in which his counterpart Xi Jinping is involved. International diplomacy, human rights, economic agreements… The return suitcase of the Head of State should not weigh much heavier than on the outward journey. But it is above all the image of the French diplomatic weight on the globe that raises questions. “It’s more a visit from Ursula Von der Leyen accompanied by Emmanuel Macron. The Chinese will take it like that”, analysis with Linternaute Jean-Vincent Brisset, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS ) and China specialist.
In the delegation accompanying Emmanuel Macron, the President of the European Commission, the executive power of the European Union, has indeed “imposed” herself. It is therefore more in the name of the EU, rather than France, that this trip is organized. Quite a symbol according to this expert. “That a state visit by a French leader is cheated by a European leader, that very clearly says something about the level of sovereignty of France. France only interests China because it is a member of the council United Nations Security Permanent and China cannot ignore this member. Without it, France would be ignored”, comments Jean-Vincent Brisset, who adds: “France’s place is quite far in the mind of China .”
For Marc Julienne (in a note), researcher, head of China activities at the Asia Center of the French Institute of International Relations, it is only a question of the continuation of the French president of “the very consistent line since his first term of office of inscribing the bilateral relationship between France and Chinese within the European framework. Emmanuel Macron was already accompanied by European leaders. during the reception of Xi Jinping and his trip to China in 2019. So what should we expect from this trip?
Macron muzzled over the war between Ukraine and Russia?
The main topic of discussion between the leaders is expected to be the war in Ukraine. China appears as a possible mediator between Ukraine and Russia, given its relations with Vladimir Putin. A meeting between the Russian president and his Chinese counterpart took place at the end of March. The second world power has already proposed a peace plan, in twelve points, which did not convince the West. Will the delegation try to make Xi Jinping go in the direction of the EU? Mission almost impossible. “Ursula Von der Leyen is one of the people who are extremely tough on China. She is going to war”, recontextualizes Jean-Vincent Brisset, noting that the European leader is campaigning for an armed victory for Europe. Ukraine, like the United States and allied countries.
In his eyes, Emmanuel Macron could however open a breach for a progress in the discussions, he who does not quite have the same speech by advocating peace rather than arms, as he repeated to the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky on 1er april. “France has tried to do something a little different from Westerners. It can play” wants to believe Jean-Vincent Brisset, who fears that the Head of State will be muzzled: “I do not know if Emmanuel Macron will be authorized to say that it would be nice to start with a ceasefire.” Because at her side, Ursula Von der Leyen could try to put pressure on China and summon it to follow the West “by reminding it that it is more vulnerable than Russia (to possible sanctions, editor’s note) and that ‘She couldn’t handle them because she’s less self-sufficient.” “Ursula Von der Leyen’s speech, as well as the statements she will make in Beijing, risk highlighting the pusillanimity of the French position” fears Marc Julienne.
However, alliances to counter the West are gaining weight between the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation (China, Russia, India, Iran and various countries in Central Asia), organization to which Saudi Arabia recently joined. “The West is going to be told that right now the countries that are against the West are gaining momentum.” On the aspect of the war in Ukraine, it is therefore at a status quo to be expected after the meeting between Macron, Von der Leyen and Xi Jinping. “We should not expect results on this front”, slice Marc Julienne.
Big contracts for French companies?
Could Emmanuel Macron’s trip to China be an opportunity for French companies to land new contracts? In the delegation that will fly to the Middle Kingdom, around fifty big French bosses will be present. When he came in 2019, around forty contracts, for a total amount of 13.6 billion euros, had been signed, in favor of Gaztransport and Technigaz, EDF, the port of Marseille, Indigo, Orano (ex-Areva ), BNP and food companies. This year, the deal should not be similar.
According BFM-TV, only Veolia could try to pull out of the game, as well as Airbus. Not really something to get excited about according to Jean-Vincent Brisset: “The specialty of China is to buy lots of Airbuses on each trip (France, Germany etc…). These contracts have not always been profitable since there is an obligation to buy back old planes. Concretely, it keeps the factories running but it is not financially profitable.” “With China, very profitable contracts are extremely rare. They are rather niche contracts,” he explains.
The subject of the Uyghurs discussed?
As always when it comes to China, the subject of human rights comes back to the fore. In 2021, the Elysee Palace claimed that Emmanuel Macron had raised the issue of the Uyghurs during a telephone interview with Xi Jinping, without this being mentioned in the official report. A year earlier, the head of state had denounced “unacceptable practices” against this population in a letter sent to parliamentarians. Since then, radio silence.
In February 2022, during a telephone exchange, the presidential palace had simply indicated that “in the context of the presidency of the Council of the European Union, the President of the Republic pleaded for a close dialogue between the European Union and China in order to address all the subjects, both the common objectives and the points of divergence”, without specifying the details.
For Jean-Vincent Brisset, the leaders will “perhaps” be able to talk about it, without it having any impact. “There has never been much freedom when a French leader goes to China. The speeches are written in advance, especially the chapter on human rights, subject to China’s approval,” says the searcher. The public evocation of this subject is not even certain.
In the eyes of Marc Julienne, tackling the question of Taiwan appears to be a “file of prime importance.” “It is legitimate and necessary to inform the Chinese President of France’s deep concern about the rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait as well as the need for the entire international community (and therefore for Xi himself) same) to maintain stability and the status quo” explains the researcher. For him, France cannot discard, question of “credibility in the Indo-Pacific.” “France cannot remain deaf and silent on the most decisive security issue of the decade, for the region and for the world order”, he says. But will China hear it?
Macron in China, a blow for nothing?
Before the flight of Emmanuel Macron, few signals suggest that this move will lead to real progress. It might even be a hit for nothing. Jean-Vincent Brisset summarizes: “Concrete? No. It’s just communication.” This state visit “will certainly be presented as a success because the President of the Republic seems to need a lot of success at the moment. Now to have a real success would be a Chinese declaration where they commit to leaving Taiwan or to not to engage militarily in Taiwan. It would be a capitulation.” But that will not be on the agenda.