US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan will only be confirmed if she shows up. For security reasons, the schedule of Pelosi’s trip to Asia will not be announced in advance.
16:18•Updated 21:05
Previously, there was no certainty about the time of departure.
Pelosi will most obviously go on a trip to at least Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Whether the trip includes the most publicized controversial part, i.e. the visit to Taiwan, is not certain. The visit will only be confirmed if Pelosi’s delegation lands in Taiwan.
For security reasons, the travel schedules of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives are not announced in advance.
Preparations are made and the security plan is ready
Speaker Pelosi has invited representatives from both Democrats and Republicans to her Asian tour, writes, among other things CNN. (you switch to another service) Their names have not been released either.
China again strongly rejected any indication of US support for Taiwan. China considers Taiwan to be part of mainland China, although Taiwan is practically an independent state.
President Joe Biden has said that he understands the opponents of Pelosi’s travel project and the political risks associated with the trip. However, Biden reminds that ultimately the speaker decides on his own trips.
The Speaker of the House of Representatives is the second-highest position in the US leadership, right after the Vice President.
The last time a similar trip from the United States to Taiwan took place in 1997, when the Republican president Newt Gingrich visited there at the end of his trip to China. At that time, communist China was significantly weaker than it is today and did not have the same international political weight.
For China, deciding to retaliate is also a risk
China has used very strong language and issued strong statements about retaliation since Pelosi’s travel plan was leaked more than a week ago.
The lines of China’s speeches are very similar to what has been heard during President Xi’s reign. Still, progressing from talk to practical countermeasures would be a difficult solution for China’s leadership right now.
The People’s Liberation Army will celebrate the anniversary of its founding next week, on August 1st. President Xi is the supreme commander of the military. A visit by the US high representative to Taiwan at the same time would be a humiliation for Xi.
In addition, the Chinese Communist Party will hold its 20th Party Congress this fall. Its agenda is to prepare a third extended term for Xi as the party leader. At the same time, the party’s other leadership positions and persons and the entire line of action are under scrutiny.
If China and President Xi ended up in aggressive confrontations with the United States due to Pelosi’s possible visit, China would find itself in a very tight situation.
On the other hand, China is partly driving itself into a corner with its threatening statements, because constant verbal taunting loses its meaning.
A defense policy researcher at Taiwan’s Central Police University Arthur Zhin-Sheng Wang the news agency AP estimates that Pelosi’s travel project alone is a test by which the United States and China measure each other’s ability to survive crises.
– The call between Biden and Xi was an indication that the leaders have at least some level of mutual understanding of how states would act when risks rise and how they would control their actions through negotiations, says researcher Wang.
The story was updated on 29.7. at 21:05: Updated story with new information about Pelosi’s trip to Asia.