In recent weeks, several media outlets have asked whether the United States is withdrawing its troops from Syria and Iraq.
in Foreign Policy magazine according to the published article, withdrawing from Syria has been discussed in the US Departments of Defense and State.
News agency Reuters on the other hand recently reported that the United States is beginning discussions about the future of international forces in Iraq.
In Iraq, there are negotiations with the government, in Syria, the Kurds are the host of the US forces. The Kurds took control of areas in northeastern Syria, while most of the president Bashar al-Assad regime forces withdrew in the early stages of the Syrian civil war in 2012.
US troops came to the scene to support the Kurds in the fight against the extremist group ISIS. In 2019, Isis lost its last territories in northern Syria. The Kurdish-led SDF forces were in a decisive position in the battles.
“Isis is still active in different parts of Syria”
Not much has been heard about ISIS activities in Syria lately.
However, Isis has not disappeared from Syria, says a researcher who knows the movement well Aaron Y. Zelin From the Washington Institute, a US-based research institute focusing on the Middle East.
– They are still operating in different parts of Syria every day. This is just not reported in the media in the West, the matter no longer seems interesting, says Zelin.
According to Zelin, Isis is not as strong as, say, five or ten years ago, but it would be a mistake to believe that the movement has been defeated once and for all. In addition, Isis apparently keeps a low profile when the United States is considering whether it is time to withdraw.
– I think that Isis is trying to give the impression that it is weaker than it actually is. It doesn’t claim to be the author of all its attacks to create the impression of weakness, says Zelin.
According to him, many parties would try to take advantage of the departure of US troops.
– In addition to ISIS, Turkey and its local allies would probably try to attack the region. That would make the fight against ISIS significantly more difficult, as local SDF forces might be more concerned about the threat posed by Turkey than ISIS.
The Assad regime, Iran and Russia could also take advantage of the situation.
Iranian-backed groups have carried out dozens of attacks against US forces in the Middle East in recent months. Over the weekend, the United States attacked bases of Iranian-backed forces in response to a drone strike in Jordan that killed three American soldiers.
Isis prisoners a dangerous problem
If the security situation deteriorates even further, Isis could find additions to its ranks due to the unresolved prisoner problem in northeastern Syria.
It is estimated that there are around 10,000 Isis fighters in prisons in northeastern Syria. Al-Holi camp and a few other places are also home to more than 50,000 civilians who stayed in ISIS-controlled areas.
Isis has tried to release prisoners, and there have also been unrest in al-Holi.
– If 10,000 experienced fighters were released from prison, it would be a huge victory for Isis. There were several prison raids in Iraq between 2012 and 2014. At that time, at most, hundreds of released prisoners were talked about, says Aaron Y. Zelin.
Many of the prisoners and those in camps are foreigners. It has previously been estimated that there are also a dozen Finnish citizens in northeastern Syria, apparently in the al-Holi camp.
The Kurdish-led forces try to guard the prisons and camps as best they can, but the disappointment with the international community is great.
The second chairman of the PYD party operating in the Kurdish region Salih Muslim think it’s obvious that the legacy of ISIS has been left to the Kurdish regime because the countries are not evacuating their citizens.
“Many countries have left their garbage to us”
– It seems that many countries have left their garbage to us, pardon the expression, Muslim says in a telephone interview from northern Syria.
The Syrian Kurds have been valuable allies in the fight against ISIS. Salih Muslim says that so far no change in the activities of the American forces has been observed in the region.
Video: Syrian Kurds have played a key role in defeating the extremist group ISIS.
– There is a lot of speculation, but here the US forces continue their operations against ISIS together with the local forces, says Muslim.
According to Muslim, Turkey is already very active in the region, and the Kurdish-led forces are alone against Turkey.
– Turkey fires at border areas with artillery and carries out drone strikes every day. The international coalition never promised to defend us. We agreed on the fight against terrorism and the extremist movement ISIS.
According to Muslim, Turkey’s attacks may disrupt the fight against ISIS.
Salih Muslim once held negotiations with Turkey, but now Turkey considers him to be a terrorist leader. According to Turkey’s interpretation, the Kurdish-led regime in northern Syria is part of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PKK.
Salih Muslim does not know how to get Turkey to change its attitude.
– The leaders of Turkey have Kurdophobia, they oppose the rights given to the Kurds everywhere. This is related to the fact that they have not solved their own Kurdish problem.
Muslim accuses Turkey of a plan to deport the region’s Kurdish population. The situation continues to be tense, but there are no signs of a Turkish ground attack.
Aaron Y. Zelin has heard from his own sources that the US withdrawal considerations are at a very preliminary stage, where it is assessed what would happen if the US withdrew from Syria.
In all the comments, there seems to be a consensus that nothing will happen very quickly, and not necessarily before the US presidential election in November.
Trump already decided to withdraw the troops
If Donald Trump re-emerges as President of the United States, things could move quickly.
In his previous presidential term, he already decided to withdraw US troops from Syria in the fall of 2019, out of the way of Turkey’s attack. However, the retreat was interrupted due to harsh criticism.
According to Salih Muslim, there are few options.
– If the Americans leave, we will continue the fight against ISIS, Turkey and other forces invading here. We fought ISIS before the international forces came. We don’t attack anyone, but if someone does, we defend ourselves.