US intelligence says Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to seize most of Ukraine’s territory, but Moscow’s forces are too weak and can only advance slowly.
After failing to achieve its goals of capturing Kyiv and other cities in a short time, Moscow focused on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine in March.
According to Avril Haines, Director of US National Intelligence, Putin still wants to achieve his goals at the beginning of the war. It is thought that the war may take a long time, as it seems difficult to realize this in the near future.
Speaking at the US Department of Commerce conference, Haines stated that Putin’s short-term military goals in this region and the capacity of his army do not match, and they think that there is some kind of incompatibility between what he wants and his forces.
Although Russian forces have made gains there in recent weeks, taking control of the city of Severodonetsk, it has progressed slowly. It was met with strong resistance from the Ukrainian forces.
The war may be prolonged
In this first public statement on US intelligence’s assessments of the war since May, Haines stressed that Russia’s invasion could take a long time and “the picture is quite depressing”.
He noted that the intelligence agency envisioned three scenarios for how the war might end, likely to continue as a slow-moving war in which Russia slowly made gains without making a breakthrough.
Other less anticipated possibilities are a major Russian breakthrough or a stabilization of the front lines by Ukraine making minor gains.
This may suggest that Moscow has become more dependent on “means of asymmetric warfare”, including cyber-attacks, the effort to control energy sources, and even nuclear weapons.
Haines’ comments came yesterday, after NATO leaders pledged to stand behind Ukraine as long as necessary.