US Inflation, Intesa: Marginal Surprise More Consistent with 25bp Cut

USA ADP 184 thousand more employed in March well above

(Finance) – “The marginal upside surprise on the core index is more consistent with a rate cut by the Fed next week, than 25 rather than 50 basis points“. This is what analysts say Intesa San Paolo following the release of US consumer price data for the month of August.

Consumer price data for August were roughly in line with expectations: the index headline rose 0.2% m/m as in July, and slowed from 2.9% to 2.5% on an annual basis: this is a new low since February 2021. In contrast, the CPI core surprised to the upside by a tenth (0.3% m/m, from 0.2% previously), but on the year was flat at 3.2% y/y as expected (the lowest since April 2021).

Analysts point out that the costs of accommodations remain the only cause of inflationary pressuresas the expected moderation is not yet materializing, despite the ongoing slowdown in market rental prices. Non-housing services are showing some more signs of disinflation, while a negative contribution to the overall index continues to come from both energy and core goods.

(Photo: Saulo Mohana on Unsplash)

tlb-finance