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The early heat wave that hit Southern Europe and North Africa last week would almost certainly not have occurred without human influence on the climate.
This is highlighted by a group of international researchers in a new study.
It is so dry that some in desperation turn to higher powers in the hope of help from above. In Jaen, southern Spain, thousands of parishioners gathered earlier this week in the streets with a statue of Jesus – to pray for rain for the first time since 1949.
– We are in the middle of a persistent drought and the purpose of the procession is to invoke the Lord so that he can help and save us, says participant Ricardo Cobos to the AFP news agency.
Extreme drought
In some parts of Spain and Portugal, it is drier than it has been in over a thousand years. Also, it has never been as hot in April in Spain as it was in Córdoba last week.
The record 38.8 degrees is otherwise a temperature that is more typical for July or August in the area. But dry and warm air from the Sahara led to an unusually early heat wave in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria at the end of the month, when several record highs were made on thermometers.
And the extreme heat would almost certainly not have made an entrance so early in the year if it weren’t for today’s global warming, according to a so-called attribution study from the World Weather Attribution (WWA). It is a network of international researchers who state that human emissions of greenhouse gases have made such an early heat wave at least 100 times more likely, with temperatures up to 3.5 degrees higher than normal.
– We will see more intense and frequent heat waves in the future as global warming continues, says Sjoukje Philip, researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, in a briefing on the study’s results.
Rising quickly
The study also points out that the extreme temperatures around the Mediterranean appear to be increasing faster than climate models have previously predicted.
The analysis has been done at record speed and has therefore not been reviewed by other researchers according to the “peer review” system. But the WWA researchers use scientifically recognized methods and not infrequently have their studies reviewed and published in journals at later times, according to the AP news agency.
Facts
World Weather Attribution
World Weather Attribution is an international research network that analyzes the possible impact of climate change on extreme weather events such as storms, extreme rainfall, heat waves, cold spells and droughts.
In the past, WWA has, among other things, concluded that this year’s floods in Nigeria and other parts of West Africa were worsened by climate change. However, WWA has also determined that global warming was not the main cause of the food crisis in Madagascar in 2021.
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