There was a scent of the 2000s, Tuesday September 5, at Church House, near the British Parliament, where the new shadow cabinet Labor. The day before, a major and long-awaited reshuffle put the party in battle order for the next legislative elections, which will be held in 2024. From this very political exercise emerges a big winner: former Prime Minister Tony Blair .
It is towards its centrist and liberal current, the right wing of the party, that the current leader of Labor, Keir Starmer, has decided to move. This shadow cabinet, the alternative government composed by the opposition, gives pride of place to the “Blairists”. Several MPs who worked with Tony Blair between 1997 and 2007 joined or were promoted to important portfolios, such as finance, science and employment. Others were retained in their positions, such as the “shadow minister” of the interior, Yvette Cooper.
Conversely, many supporters of the left wing of the party have been demoted, or even simply dismissed. Symbolic example, Lisa Nandy, former rival of Keir Starmer in the race for the leadership of Labour, in 2020, sees the very influential morocco of regional planning removed (“leveling up”) for the benefit of international development, much lower in the hierarchy. The only figure on the left who benefits from the reshuffle, Angela Rayner, already No. 2, sees her responsibilities expand.
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Keir Starmer, who once presented himself as a more moderate and serious counterpart to Jeremy Corbyn, therefore clearly affirms his choice to move towards the center. Since his election as leader of the Labor Party, he has already abandoned certain flagship proposals of the left wing, such as nationalizations, the abolition of university tuition fees or the increase in certain social assistance.
Today, this revival with Blairism is not only ideological: Tony Blair himself is returning to the forefront. Keir Starmer consults him and participated with him at a discussion on the future of the country organized by the Tony Blair Institute, which advises governments around the world. Since 2007, no leader of the Labor Party has displayed such complicity with the former tenant of 10 Downing Street. “Keir Starmer is trying to take ideas from Tony Blair, gain charisma and figure out how to win an election, says the academic Sophie Loussouarn, specialist in British political life. He is still the only Prime Minister to have Labor elected three times in a row.”
Keir Starmer is doing everything to turn the page on the thirteen years of opposition and the rout of 2019, the party’s worst score since 1935. After having marginalized the Corbynist wing and Jeremy Corbyn himself, who will not be reinvested in his constituency, Keir Starmer wants to be uncompromising on anti-Semitism and assert his credibility. He invests the question of security, promotes firmness in the face of immigration, and repeats wanting to achieve the strongest growth in the G7, in the hope of convincing centrist voters and reproducing the Blairite triumph of 1997. A strategy which seems to walk. According to an Opinium surveyLabor are given the big winners of the next legislative elections, with a lead of 14 points, and their leader is considered more competent and closer to the concerns of the British than the current tenant of 10 Downing Street, the conservative Rishi Sunak.
Risky bet
He still has to manage to transform this image into an electoral victory. And the memory of the former Prime Minister could cost him dearly. “Keir Starmer is playing a dangerous game in bringing back Tony Blair, because he needs the left to mobilize, warns political scientist Florence Faucher. Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters already see him as too centrist and might prefer not to vote.” Tony Blair remains a very divisive figure among Labor, some of whom still criticize him for his support for the war in Iraq, his policy of austerity and his very lucrative career in consulting after leaving the government. “For the left wing, he contributed to a right-wing of political life and a liberalization of society,” adds Florence Faucher. British public opinion , she too, has bad memories of Tony Blair. So much so that, in January 2022, Only 14% of our neighbors across the Channel approved of him being knighted by the Queenand more than 1 million people signed a petition expressing their disagreement.
Another risk in view of the elections, the failure to win back the popular electorate, which has largely turned away from Labor since the 2000s in favor of abstention, Brexit, then, in 2019, the Conservative Party. Even the “red wall”, all of the historic bastions of Labor, had then swung in favor of Boris Johnson. “Keir Starmer is trying to attract those who are disappointed with Tory politics, but they are simply disappointed with politics,” recalls Sophie Loussouarn. Hit hard by inflation, the cost of living crisis and endless waiting times to see a doctor, these voters could also skip the election rather than trust the Labor Party again.
Keir Starmer is aware of these dangers. During his conversation with Tony Blair, he readily accepted the compliments given to him by the former Prime Minister, but he was careful not to return the favor. His deputy, Angela Rayner, also distanced herself : “Keir is not Tony Blair, and I am not John Prescott [le n° 2 du parti dans les années 2000]”, she insisted. Reviving the memory of a Labor Party in power, without recalling the failures of the past, this is the difficult crest that Keir Starmer will have to find.