Mélenchon union champion. The hypothesis was not surprising, it is confirmed by an Ifop study on the first round of the presidential election of 2022, which the Express reveals exclusively. It is in the details that certain figures make you jump. Marine Le Pen continues to gain power among supporters of the three main employee unions by winning 22% of their votes, against 19% five years ago. Her breakthrough is particularly visible at the CFDT, where the candidate convinces 15% of supporters, and at Force Ouvrière, where she reaches 29%. With Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (who won 7% of the vote among those close to FO, one point more than Emmanuel Macron!) and Eric Zemmour, the far right even reached 38% among the supporters of the organization formerly led by Andre Bergeron. “These are high figures… reflecting a blurring – or displacement – of traditional benchmarks. The left no longer has a monopoly on the support of the unions. Like, no doubt, the phenomenon of the “yellow vests” which had already reflects a distancing of a popular France from the left and more broadly from the classic parties”, notes Dominique Andolfatto, professor of political science at the University of Burgundy.
With CFDT sympathizers, and despite Emmanuel Macron’s proposals on the retirement age, it is the outgoing president who takes the lead. He is closely followed – and it is a surprise – by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 25% of the vote, against 19% five years ago and 9% in 2012. “It is an indication that the vote in favor of Jean -Luc Mélenchon was a useful vote, coming in part from the social-reformist left”, reacts Jérôme Fourquet, the director of the opinion department of Ifop.
“Speech vis-à-vis the RN has been released”
The polling institute questioned 3,784 people, including 2,017 employees, according to the method of representative quotas, on April 10. It follows that Marine Le Pen comes first in the first round of the presidential election among employees, who are 26% to vote for her. It appeals more to those who are not close to any union (28%, against 22%). “Obviously, being close to a union moves away – always – from the RN vote …. but less and less. No doubt it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the word of certain union sympathizers vis-à-vis the RN has freed itself … given the presence of another far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour”, considers Dominique Andolfatto. Conversely, Jean-Luc Mélenchon outperforms with supporters of these organizations (35%). “It was said a little quickly that the Mélenchon electorate was the left “Terra Nova”, precarious urban graduates and the suburbs. But it also resists well in the old bastions of the trade union left”, comments Jérôme Fourquet. The left as a whole only brings together 50% of those close to trade unions, all of whom are nevertheless historically anchored within this political space (compared to 57% in 2012, for example).
This decline is very clear with CFDT supporters. The left is now in the minority there (45%) against 55% for the centre, the right and the extreme right. In detail, Emmanuel Macron convinces 29% of employees who indicated that they were close to Laurent Berger’s union. “The supporters of the CFDT favor a more centrist and legitimist behavior, it is a post-industrial trade unionism which plays the game of the system”, estimates Dominique Andolfatto. It is true that for the first, no doubt, in their history, the sympathizers of the reformist union have placed in the lead… the same candidate as the city of Neuilly or the department of Hauts-de-Seine, historic bastions of the right liberal. This shift in Emmanuel Macron’s electoral base is the main change since 2017, a deadline when the founder of En Marche had gathered… 44% of CFDT support. This tends to show that the rapprochement with the moderate left has not fully taken hold. “Between Macron and the CFDT, we can speak of a missed meeting,” said Jérôme Fourquet. Within this union, the social-democratic and ecological left resists well: Anne Hidalgo and Yannick Jadot each gather 7% of the votes of CFDT sympathizers. This is one of their last strongholds.
Mélenchon crushes Roussel at the CGT
Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears to him as the champion of the CGT, with 44% of the votes of his supporters. A decline of four points compared to 2017, which is explained by the unprecedented competition from Fabien Roussel, the boss of the Communist Party. Within this organization historically linked to the PCF, the tribune of insubordinate France finally crushed its official representative, who convinced only 7% of these voters.