The global unemployment rate is expected to fall by 0.1 points, to 5.3% against 5.5% before the pandemic, estimates the International Labor Organization in a report released Wednesday, May 31.
This decrease corresponds to one million fewer unemployed people, which would drop from 192 million in 2022 to 193 million this year. In mid-January, the ILO bet yet on three million additional unemployed.
“Even if the unemployment rate in the world is expected to decline in 2023 below its level during the pandemic, this rather reflects a stronger than expected resilience in high-income countries than a generalized recovery”, notes however. Geneva-based organization.
The difficult return to the pre-pandemic level in certain regions
Low-income countries, Africa and Arab states should not return to pre-crisis unemployment levels. North Africa, for example, will reach an unemployment rate of 11.2% in 2023 (compared to 10.9% in 2019), sub-Saharan Africa expects 6.3% (compared to 5.7% before the pandemic) and the States Arabs 9.3% (8.7% in 2019).
On a global scale, conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, natural disasters such as the earthquake in Turkey and economic crises are amplifying the effects of the shocks resulting from the pandemic.
“In developing countries, the response to these current multiple crises (or “polycrisis”) is hampered by the combination of high inflation and high interest rates, as well as a growing risk of over-indebtedness. “, details the report. As a result, States have less budgetary leeway to revive growth.
Unemployment slowed down by the rise of informal employment
Conversely, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern, Western and Southern Europe and Central and Western Asia have managed to reach unemployment rates below pre-pandemic levels. . The number of unemployed has also fallen sharply in India.
But, in particular in Latin America, “the recovery of employment after the Covid-19 crisis was mainly fueled by informal employment”, however analyzed in mid-January the ILO.
For the UN agency, only measures on employment and the development of a real protection floor could rebalance these regional disparities. “The prospect of receiving a pension in old age changes the attitude of younger people in the labor market and beyond, improving economic growth and reducing income inequality”, observes for example the ILO.
The organization also calls for “international support” and “multilateral coordination to tackle persistent employment deficits and growing inequalities” for developing countries, including through restructuring and alleviating of their debt.
In this perspective of financial solidarity, a summit intended to develop “a new global financial pact” will be held on June 22 and 23 in Paris.