It’s the start of a space race on the Korean peninsula. North Korea claimed on Wednesday, November 22, to have put a spy satellite into orbit, while its southern neighbor should launch its own at the end of November.
China called on Wednesday for “calm” and “restraint” after the launch by North Korea of what it presents as a military satellite, a shot condemned by the UN, South Korea, the United States United and Japan. L’Express explains everything about this battle.
Why does Pyongyang want this satellite?
Pyongyang seeks to monitor strategic areas, including South Korea and the Pacific island of Guam home to US military bases, experts say. North Korea first attempted to launch a satellite in 1998, without success. In 2021, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made the development of a spy satellite one of the regime’s priorities. Monitoring these areas in real time would allow Pyongyang to improve its “preventive strike capabilities”, underlines Lim Eul-chul, associate professor at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University.
Washington and Seoul, for their part, suspect Pyongyang of developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile, which includes technologies similar to that of a satellite launcher.
Did the launch work?
The North Korean satellite appears to have entered orbit, as announced by North Korean state media, the South Korean military said Wednesday, while specifying that it was too early to say if it is working really. Putting into orbit does not necessarily mean that the craft will be able to “fulfill its reconnaissance functions,” according to Leif-Eric Easley, professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
The launch comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested in September, after a meeting with Kim Jong-un, that his country could help Pyongyang build satellites. Since its first attempt to launch a military spy satellite at the end of May, which ended in failure, Pyongyang has improved significantly, said Cha Du-hyeogn, analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. . Progress which can translate into military gains, giving the North the capacity to “load nuclear warheads”, he adds.
Did Russia help?
South Korea has warned that Pyongyang is supplying weapons to Moscow in exchange for Russian space technology aimed at putting a military spy satellite into orbit. Given the short time between the Kim-Putin meeting and Wednesday’s launch, analysts believe that Moscow was only able to help Pyongyang at the “software” level.
“If there had been a serious error to correct, such as a change in hardware or design, a launch in November would have been physically impossible,” said Chang Young-keun, professor at Korea Aerospace University.
Where is South Korea?
Seoul is currently counting on Washington to help it monitor North Korea’s activities. But South Korea recently unveiled plans to also orbit its own spy satellite, scheduled for launch on November 30, aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.
If the satellite is placed in orbit, “Seoul will be able to independently obtain military intelligence on North Korea, previously obtained from the United States and Japan”, explains to AFP Ahn Chan-il, a defector-turned-researcher, who now heads the Global Institute for North Korea Studies.
Two space powers?
In 2022, South Korea launched its first lunar probe, Danuri, aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. The same year, it also became the seventh country in the world to successfully launch a one-ton payload on its own rockets.
The launch of South Korea’s first military satellite on Nov. 30 is part of Seoul’s ambitious $1 billion “Project 425,” which aims to deploy five high-speed military satellites into orbit. resolution by 2025.
In this race for military space capabilities, Pyongyang has also committed to launching other satellites “in a short period of time” in order to intensify its surveillance of South Korea, state media reported.