It was a matter of time. Spattered by a scandal involving his trusted man and very weakened by Yevgeny Prigojine’s aborted putsch in June 2023, Sergei Shoigu, Russian Minister of Defense for twelve years and great friend of Vladimir Putin, was dismissed on Sunday May 12. If the appointment of his successor, Andreï Belousov, has yet to be confirmed by the Federation Council, the profile of the new tenant leaves one wondering. What is an economist – admittedly a long-time advisor to the Kremlin and first deputy prime minister of the government since 2020 – to do in this position, in the midst of a military offensive, without the slightest experience in military matters?
For Bill Browder, manager for ten years of the Hermitage Capital investment fund in Russia and fierce opponent of the head of the Kremlin (the international press nicknames him “Putin’s number 1 enemy”), the choice of Andreï Belousov would obey the Putin’s “usual” logic – namely surrounding himself with loyal figures, neither too popular nor too powerful: “When you wage a war of resources, as Putin is doing against Ukraine, what you are looking for is not a minister with a vision, but an accountant…” Interview.
L’Express: Sergei Shoigu was not only Vladimir Putin’s Defense Minister but also one of his friends. Does his dismissal surprise you?
Bill Browder : No way. Shoigu was clearly in pole position for the next departures from the government. Between the bitter setbacks suffered by the Russian army in 2022, the flowery criticisms addressed to it by Yevgeny Prigozhin in the summer of 2023 – “incapable”, “traitor”, “complete bastard” –, and the revolt of the Wagner paramilitary group – the coup de grace – it’s an understatement to say that he was in the hot seat. But for Putin, it was unthinkable to react immediately otherwise it would give the impression of panic within the state apparatus. So he waited for the right moment. And now, as if by magic, a corruption scandal involving Shoigu’s right-hand man at the Defense Ministry, Timur Ivanov, was made public a few weeks before the government reshuffle…
You seem cautious about the timing of this decision…
In Russia, corruption is everywhere and therefore nowhere. The scandal that has engulfed Shoigu and his ministry is only proof that Putin wanted to get rid of him via a credible pretext for the West – the Russians, for their part, attach little importance to the composition of their government, since they know It is clear that Putin controls everything. What matters is that the price of eggs does not increase.
In other words, if it is quite possible that the financial shenanigans revealed in April had harmful consequences on Defense finances, it is not for this reason that Putin is dismissing his minister and friend, but because he had become a ball and chain. If he can cover up the failures of his army in the war in Ukraine, why deprive himself of such an opportunity?
Lately, however, Moscow seems to be taking advantage of its numerical superiority on the ground. kyiv has just recognized “tactical successes” on the part of Russia in the Kharkiv region…
It’s superficial. On paper, Russia does indeed have the advantage, as Ukraine lacks money and ammunition. But the situation is about to change. The United States has just released a significant sum that will allow the Ukrainian army to regain strength in the coming months – even if it will not solve all its problems.
Despite its propaganda efforts, Russia has lost countless soldiers in recent months. According to estimates from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry last February, Russia has lost more than 400,000 soldiers since the start of the invasion of Ukraine. Last week alone, 8,000 soldiers were reportedly killed and nearly 80 tanks are now out of commission. Today, the Russian army is forced to buy its drones from Iran and recruit soldiers in Nepal and Cuba – in particular because it still refuses to implement conscription for fear of irritating the public opinion… In a democratic country, this would be a pure scandal and an admission of terrible failure. Whatever the Kremlin propagandists say, what is happening is a catastrophe for the Russian army.
How do you interpret the choice of Andrei Belousov, Putin’s former economic advisor without any military background, to replace Sergei Shoigu?
Belousov is far from being a key face of the Russian state apparatus. Since the announcement of his appointment, he has been presented as the brains of the Russian economy, a sort of secret weapon lurking in the shadows, but most people familiar with the country’s political life have until now viewed him as a character. second rate. His appointment seems to me above all to reflect Putin’s usual logic. Namely, surround yourself with people who are loyal but not too powerful, nor more popular than him.
Putin is not a player: he is a micro-manager who does not want a competitor likely to challenge him but a faithful soldier, and all the better if he does his job well! This may seem simplistic, but we must keep in mind that within the Kremlin, no decision is taken without Putin’s approval. Its ministers, whatever their theoretical weight and profile, are in fact not as important as one might believe.
An article from Politico published in 2020 identified Andreï Belousov as one of Putin’s potential successors…
Putin is not looking for a successor; he would not have appointed a person likely to become one to such a position. On the contrary, the fact that he chose a bureaucrat who did not come from the ranks of the KGB is telling. It was the same thing under Boris Yeltsin. In 1998, Sergei Kirienko, a pure technocrat, was appointed Prime Minister. At the time, he was the youngest person to ever hold this position in Russia, and he had a classy profile. But he only stayed in office for barely six months. In Russia, and especially under Putin, a good minister’s CV must contain the words “loyalty” and “insignificance”.
The new minister is certainly a faithful follower of Vladimir Putin, but we are far from summer hikes with Sergei Shoigu in the taiga… Is the clan logic dear to Vladimir Putin still at work?
All eyes are on the arrival of Belousov, but Boris Kovaltchouk, the son of a close friend of Vladimir Putin, is still named head of the Court of Auditors! If that’s not clannishness… Besides, Choïgu is not about to disappear from the radar screens. Like Dmitri Medvedev before him, who was appointed vice-president of the Security Council in 2020 after leaving his post as Prime Minister, he is swapping his functions for another honorary post. This is what Putin does with old friends he no longer needs: he finds them a nice closet. But I believe that we should not overinterpret this rearrangement either.
What do you mean ?
During the Soviet era, those who scrutinized circles close to power were called “Kremlinologists”. and discussed personnel changes. At the time, political choices were made with a minimum of rationality. But today, Putin’s regime is a sort of big crime family: determining why the different “capos” were appointed or dismissed, why some receive more resources than others, is a matter of speculation, or requires ‘be a criminologist! As in all caporegimes, the secrets are too well kept to be able to have a rigorous idea of reality.
Andreï Belousov is known as a “statist”. Isn’t such an appointment to Defense nevertheless a harbinger of a militarization of the Russian economy and an intensification of its nationalization?
The Russian economy is already militarized. Well before this reshuffle, the Duma voted for a 70% increase in military spending in 2024. In total, the sums allocated to Defense should represent around 30% of federal spending next year, and 6% of GDP – which is a first in modern Russian history. Likewise regarding the role of the State, there is also nothing new.
In recent years, the state apparatus has invested massively in the military-industrial complex. Between 35% and 50% of growth is linked to the production of orders relating to the war. Most key companies, particularly in the gas and oil sector, are state-owned. When you are waging a war for resources, as Putin is doing against Ukraine, what you are looking for is not a minister with a vision, but an accountant… Does Belousov’s appointment mark an intensification of nationalization and of the militarization of the economy? Maybe. But I think it’s more important to ask how we can turn this into an opportunity in this war.
You have your idea on the question…
Since the start of this war, the question of whether the West could stop imports from Russia has been regularly asked. If Putin’s ambition is indeed to intensify his economic model, which is extremely dependent on oil and gas exports, now is the perfect time to hit the wallet! But I have no illusions: we are far too afraid of the inflation that stopping Russian imports would cause for our countries. This is extremely damaging, because it is precisely our inaction that risks costing us dearly. If Russia manages to keep its economy afloat, it is quite possible that the West will find itself in direct conflict with it in the coming years. So which do we prefer: economic losses or human losses?
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