(Tiper Stock Exchange) – Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow from 3% in 2022 to 1.9% in 2023, marking one of the lowest growth rates in decades. Thereafter, global growth will moderately increase to 2.7% in 2024, if, as expected, some macroeconomic headwinds will start to abate. Among these are the major mutually reinforcing shocks that hit the world economy in 2022, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the ensuing food and energy crises, rising inflation, debt tightening and the climate emergency. It’s predictions of the United Nations (UN) in the “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023” published today.
The report expects inflationary pressures to gradually ease due to weakening aggregate demand in the global economy. This should allow the Federal Reserve and other major central banks to slow the pace of monetary tightening and eventually shift to more accommodative monetary policy. “The however, the short-term economic outlook remains highly uncertainas a myriad of economic, financial, geopolitical and environmental risks persist,” it underlined.
L’global inflationwhich reached a multi-decade high of around 9% in 2022, is expected to decline, but remain elevated at 6.5% in 2023.
“This is not the time to think short-term or knee-jerk fiscal austerity that exacerbates inequalities, increases suffering and could make the Sustainable Development Goals increasingly out of reach. These unprecedented times call for unprecedented action“, he has declared Antonio GuterresSecretary-General of the United Nations.
In the United States, GDP will grow by just 0.4% in 2023 after an estimated 1.8% growth in 2022. Consumers are expected to cut spending given higher interest rates, lower real incomes and significant declines in household net worth. Rising mortgage rates and rising construction costs are likely to continue to weigh on the housing market, with residential fixed investment expected to decline further.
L’European Union it will grow by 0.2% in 2023, down from an estimated 3.3% in 2022, as further easing of COVID-19 restrictions and the release of pent-up demand stimulated economic activity. While the European Union continues its efforts to reduce Russia’s dependence on fossil fuels, the region remains vulnerable to energy supply disruptionsincluding gas shortages.
The UN predictions for theItaly are for a GDP decline of 0.3% in 2023 and a growth of 1.1% in 2024. The GDP of the Germany it should decrease by 0.4% and grow by 1.6% the following year. There France it is expected to grow by 0.1% this year and by 1.4% in 2024.
With the government abandoning its anti-Covid policy at the end of 2022 and easing monetary and fiscal policies, for the China economic growth is expected to accelerate to 4.8% in 2023 (from +3% last year). “But the reopening of the economy is expected to be uneven – the document reads – Growth will likely remain well below the pre-pandemic rate of 6 to 6.5%”.