In recent weeks, Russia has moved several key anti-aircraft missile systems from Kaliningrad, according to the journalism group Bellingcat.
For Russia, it risks undermining plans for a potential future war against NATO.
Putin’s war of invasion against Ukraine has not gone according to the president’s plans.
Now both the digging journalist group Bellingcat and the Institute for the study of war, ISW show that Ukraine’s successes have knocked out a large part of the S-400 air defense robot system. Russia has therefore been forced to move a large number from Kaliningrad.
“Uncharacteristic”
Bellingcat signs X that, using a map of Russian military installations, they saw an increase in military cargo flights from the city, located in the tactically important area between Poland and Lithuania, during October and November. They describe the increase as “uncharacteristic”.
According to ISW, the movements are an attempt to manage the needs of the war in Ukraine – both in the short and medium term. At the same time, Putin has pushed for a long-term military restructuring, with the aim of preparing for a potential and “large-scale” war against NATO. Something he now appears to be undermining.
“Changes to the military structure to rush a reinforcement to Ukraine are likely to hinder the implementation of the parallel goal of restructuring Russian ground forces towards conventional warfare, with NATO as the main adversary,” writes ISW in an analysis.
The Minister of Defense’s proposal for the country’s forces
Already in December 2022, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed a series of new reforms regarding the country’s military structure. In early 2023, Putin approved some of them.
A new division between the Moscow and St. Petersburg military districts, self-supporting troops in Ukraine and a new army corps were some of the proposals that Russia is now introducing, writes ISW.