The Ukrainian soldiers dug in the trenches are already waiting for Ukraine’s counterattack against the Russian forces.
– Of course we are ready for a counterattack. We have to do it, and the sooner the better. The enemy must be expelled. Right now we are waiting for the weather situation to change, because it is difficult to attack in the mud, 23 years old Stepan said near Bahmut.
Ukrainian soldiers do not believe that Russia will try to invade Ukraine further.
– The enemy is afraid that we will start a counterattack, and they are not planning an attack. We have information about this from multiple sources: leaks and aerial intelligence, 21 years old Naza said.
Docent of Military Sciences, Visiting researcher at the Aleksanteri Institute of the University of Helsinki Ilmari Käihkö estimates that Ukraine will go on the offensive this or next month as spring advances and weather conditions become more favorable. However, it is a mystery how significant achievements Ukraine has the potential.
– The worst scenario is that Ukraine starts an attack, there will be terrible losses and the front line will not progress terribly. What will happen after that, Käihkö ponders for STT.
According to Käihkö, both the people of Ukraine and Ukraine’s western supporters expect that the country would be able to take back the territories occupied by Russia.
– Yes, those pressures in Ukraine are terribly hard.
Russia had time to fortify the defense lines
Käihkö says that achieving a significant breakthrough can be challenging for the Ukrainian forces. Last fall, Ukraine recaptured large areas in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, but since then the frontline situation has stabilized.
– Now the situation is more difficult in the sense that Russia has had time to fortify and prepare for defense, says Käihkö.
In Käihkö’s opinion, it is also worth preparing for unpleasant scenarios in which Ukraine’s attack does not quickly lead to peace.
– Yes, I would be prepared for the fact that a year from now the situation will be pretty much the same as it is now, except that there is an awful lot of dead in between, and a significant part of the material that Ukraine received for this spring and summer has been destroyed. Of course, there are also losses on the Russian side. The key open question is how the countries that support Ukraine are prepared for new and significant support measures.
Leopards are not revolutionary
During the winter, Ukraine talked a lot about Russia’s coming new big attack. Over the past couple of months, Russia has been attacking along the front, but progress has been minimal.
– If this is it (major attack), then yes, the word “major” should be put in quotation marks, it didn’t seem terribly big.
The attention has been especially in Bahmut, where Russia and Ukraine have thrown huge numbers of troops into the battle for a strategically rather insignificant city. The battle has also caused significant losses of men and material for Ukraine.
Experts are still divided on whether or not prioritizing the defense of Bahmut was a mistake on the part of the Ukrainian leadership.
Although Ukraine has exhausted itself in Bahmut, the country has also received plenty of new weaponry from Western countries. According to Käihkö, the Leopard battle tanks are important tools in the kit for Ukraine, but not revolutionary.
South is the most logical direction
So where is the Ukrainian attack most likely to take place?
According to Käihkö, the most obvious direction is south. Seizing Melitopol and advancing towards the Black Sea would be important for Ukraine in the sense that it could cut off Russia’s supply links to Crimea and threaten the occupied peninsula.
– When we reach the negotiating table at some point in time, a mere threat can change the negotiating position to a more favorable one for Ukraine.
Since the south is the most logical direction, Russia also knows how to wait for it and has done significant fortification work along the front. It is therefore not easy to take back the territories.