(Finance) – The words of Donald Trump reported by all world agencies on the role of Ukraine have again emphasized an increasingly central theme in the geopolitical competition And geoeconomic: the control of resources, with a vague reference to the “rare Earths” (rare earth). That Ukraine was the center of attention for its huge resources is a theme that precedes the conflicthowever, current dynamics make it clear how these resources have become one key variable also for the resolution of the conflict itself. The political and economic developments were analyzed by the outlook by the investment area of Ersel Private bank, in collaboration with Inspire – Institute for International Political Studies, entitled “The raw materials of Ukraine make a throat, and not only in Trump”.
The geopolitical and geoeconomic developments of the war
Ukraine is a vast countrywhich represents about 0.4% of the earth’s surface but containaccording to some estimates, 5% of mining resources worldwide. Before the invasion – highlights Alberto Prina Cerai of the ISPI – just over 3,000 sites were active, most of which consisting of non -ferrous minerals. Not only that: the occupied territories of Eastern Ukraine contain natural gas deposits. However, the True “Ukrainian treasure” it is represented by a large amount of Mineral raw materials Like aluminum, copper, nickel, lithium, Germanio, niobio, tantalo and rare landsbut also uranium (2% of the world reserves) which is returning of interest for the possible relaunch of the nuclear industry.
For all these reasons Ukraine is considered a “unique and very solid partner”. Already before the EU, the EU had identified a fundamental partner country in Ukraine for the possible supply of 20 of the 33 criticisms drawn up by the Commission and for which in July 2021 a strategic dialogue had been started, then remained in stand-by because of the conflict.
According to some preliminary reconstructions, most of these resources energy and mining now they would be under Russian controlfor an estimated value of about 12,000 billion dollars. The remaining 60% about the mining resources distributed on the territory outside the Russian control and therefore potentially reachable.
From the point of view geoeconomicthe interest of accessing these resources is to be weighed with respect to the positioning of the USA and EU as regards industrial policy especially towards green technologies, particularly avid of critical minerals such as precisely
lithium or graphite. At present, the EU seems to be able to present itself as a more condescending partner, but there is to take into account what are the negotiating forces in the field and the persuasion power of President Trump on Zelenzkiy.
How the markets will move
“Despite having addressed the US economic policy towards a well -defined theme, the increase in duties and the practically incessant newslot of these first weeks – explain Ersel’s experts – do not allow precise punctual changes to scenario outlined, which will probably come correct downward for growth and rise for inflation. All this has had no concrete effects in terms of variation of the Positioning for Multiaseet portfoliosbut put the assumptions for actions even sudden if the many uncertainties should fail. ”
As for the bondsaccording to Ersel’s expets, a Full positioning on the durationespecially for multiaseet portfolios to compensate for the risks related to investments in the context of shares and credit. “Among the corporate bonds We continue to prefer emissions with High credit merit; The emissions of the financial sector still offer an interesting extra-report and therefore continue to be well represented in the wallets “.
“For the actions The current situation leaves few “margins of error” on the evaluation multiples front; However, the profit growth expected by us (less optimistic than consent) could be sufficient to continue to support the current positive trend, especially in the USA “.
“Let’s look carefully at Developments of the economic policy in progress in China. If the authorities respond with adequate resources to the double challenge, external represented by the Trump and internal administration on the crisis situation in the real estate sector, a topic of investment of a certain time horizon on the local stock market “.
“For the currencies We remain a weight on the dollarwhich reflects the strength of the American economy; also useful as a hedging element
In the Trade Wars scenario “, analysts conclude.
(Photo: Dominik Vanyi on Usplash)